---
_id: '12236'
abstract:
- lang: eng
text: The physical response of lakes to climate warming is regionally variable and
highly dependent on individual lake characteristics, making generalizations about
their development difficult. To qualify the role of individual lake characteristics
in their response to regionally homogeneous warming, we simulated temperature,
ice cover, and mixing in four intensively studied German lakes of varying morphology
and mixing regime with a one-dimensional lake model. We forced the model with
an ensemble of 12 climate projections (RCP4.5) up to 2100. The lakes were projected
to warm at 0.10–0.11 ∘C decade−1, which is 75 %–90 % of the projected air temperature
trend. In simulations, surface temperatures increased strongly in winter and spring,
but little or not at all in summer and autumn. Mean bottom temperatures were projected
to increase in all lakes, with steeper trends in winter and in shallower lakes.
Modelled ice thaw and summer stratification advanced by 1.5–2.2 and 1.4–1.8 days decade−1
respectively, whereas autumn turnover and winter freeze timing was less sensitive.
The projected summer mixed-layer depth was unaffected by warming but sensitive
to changes in water transparency. By mid-century, the frequency of ice and stratification-free
winters was projected to increase by about 20 %, making ice cover rare and shifting
the two deeper dimictic lakes to a predominantly monomictic regime. The polymictic
lake was unlikely to become dimictic by the end of the century. A sensitivity
analysis predicted that decreasing transparency would dampen the effect of warming
on mean temperature but amplify its effect on stratification. However, this interaction
was only predicted to occur in clear lakes, and not in the study lakes at their
historical transparency. Not only lake morphology, but also mixing regime determines
how heat is stored and ultimately how lakes respond to climate warming. Seasonal
differences in climate warming rates are thus important and require more attention.
author:
- first_name: Tom
full_name: Shatwell, Tom
id: '86424'
last_name: Shatwell
orcid: 0000-0002-4520-7916
- first_name: Wim
full_name: Thiery, Wim
last_name: Thiery
- first_name: Georgiy
full_name: Kirillin, Georgiy
last_name: Kirillin
citation:
ama: 'Shatwell T, Thiery W, Kirillin G. Future projections of temperature and mixing
regime of European temperate lakes. Hydrology and earth system sciences : HESS
. 2019;23(3):1533-1551. doi:10.5194/hess-23-1533-2019'
apa: 'Shatwell, T., Thiery, W., & Kirillin, G. (2019). Future projections of
temperature and mixing regime of European temperate lakes. Hydrology and Earth
System Sciences : HESS , 23(3), 1533–1551. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1533-2019'
bjps: 'Shatwell T, Thiery W and Kirillin G (2019) Future Projections of Temperature
and Mixing Regime of European Temperate Lakes. Hydrology and earth system sciences :
HESS 23, 1533–1551.'
chicago: 'Shatwell, Tom, Wim Thiery, and Georgiy Kirillin. “Future Projections of
Temperature and Mixing Regime of European Temperate Lakes.” Hydrology and Earth
System Sciences : HESS 23, no. 3 (2019): 1533–51. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1533-2019.'
chicago-de: 'Shatwell, Tom, Wim Thiery und Georgiy Kirillin. 2019. Future projections
of temperature and mixing regime of European temperate lakes. Hydrology and
earth system sciences : HESS 23, Nr. 3: 1533–1551. doi:10.5194/hess-23-1533-2019,
.'
din1505-2-1: 'Shatwell, Tom ; Thiery, Wim ; Kirillin,
Georgiy: Future projections of temperature and mixing regime of European
temperate lakes. In: Hydrology and earth system sciences : HESS Bd. 23.
Göttingen, Copernicus GmbH (2019), Nr. 3, S. 1533–1551'
havard: 'T. Shatwell, W. Thiery, G. Kirillin, Future projections of temperature
and mixing regime of European temperate lakes, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences :
HESS . 23 (2019) 1533–1551.'
ieee: 'T. Shatwell, W. Thiery, and G. Kirillin, “Future projections of temperature
and mixing regime of European temperate lakes,” Hydrology and earth system
sciences : HESS , vol. 23, no. 3, pp. 1533–1551, 2019, doi: 10.5194/hess-23-1533-2019.'
mla: 'Shatwell, Tom, et al. “Future Projections of Temperature and Mixing Regime
of European Temperate Lakes.” Hydrology and Earth System Sciences : HESS ,
vol. 23, no. 3, 2019, pp. 1533–51, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1533-2019.'
short: 'T. Shatwell, W. Thiery, G. Kirillin, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences :
HESS 23 (2019) 1533–1551.'
ufg: 'Shatwell, Tom/Thiery, Wim/Kirillin, Georgiy: Future projections of
temperature and mixing regime of European temperate lakes, in: Hydrology and
earth system sciences : HESS 23 (2019), H. 3, S. 1533–1551.'
van: 'Shatwell T, Thiery W, Kirillin G. Future projections of temperature and mixing
regime of European temperate lakes. Hydrology and earth system sciences : HESS
. 2019;23(3):1533–51.'
date_created: 2024-12-08T20:27:48Z
date_updated: 2024-12-09T10:20:50Z
department:
- _id: DEP8022
doi: 10.5194/hess-23-1533-2019
extern: '1'
intvolume: ' 23'
issue: '3'
language:
- iso: eng
main_file_link:
- open_access: '1'
url: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1533-2019
oa: '1'
page: 1533-1551
place: Göttingen
publication: 'Hydrology and earth system sciences : HESS '
publication_identifier:
eissn:
- 1607-7938
issn:
- 1027-5606
publication_status: published
publisher: Copernicus GmbH
quality_controlled: '1'
status: public
title: Future projections of temperature and mixing regime of European temperate lakes
type: scientific_journal_article
user_id: '83781'
volume: 23
year: '2019'
...
---
_id: '12240'
abstract:
- lang: eng
text: The hydrology of the lake-rich Tibetan Plateau is important for the global
climate, yet little is known about the thermal regime of Tibetan lakes due to
scant data. We (i) investigated the characteristic seasonal temperature patterns
and recent trends in the thermal and stratification regimes of lakes on the Tibetan
Plateau and (ii) tested the performance of the one-dimensional lake parameterization
scheme FLake for the Tibetan lake system. For this purpose, we combined 3 years
of in situ lake temperature measurements, several decades of satellite observations,
and the global reanalysis data. We chose the two largest freshwater Tibetan lakes,
Ngoring and Gyaring, as study sites. The lake model FLake faithfully reproduced
the specific features of the high-altitude lakes and was subsequently applied
to reconstruct the vertically resolved heat transport in both lakes during the
last 4 decades. The model suggested that Ngoring and Gyaring were ice-covered
for about 6 months and stratified in summer for about 4 months per year with a
short spring overturn and a longer autumn overturn. In summer the surface mixed
boundary layer extended to 6–8 m of depth and was about 20 % shallower in the
more turbid Gyaring. The thermal regime of the transparent Ngoring responded more
strongly to atmospheric forcing than Gyaring, where the higher turbidity damped
the response. According to the reanalysis data, air temperatures and humidity
have increased, whereas solar radiation has decreased, since the 1970s. Surprisingly,
the modeled mean lake temperatures did not change, nor did the phenology of the
ice cover or stratification. Lake surface temperatures in summer increased only
marginally. The reason is that the increase in air temperature was offset by the
decrease in radiation, probably due to increasing humidity. This study demonstrates
that air temperature trends are not directly coupled to lake temperatures and
underscores the importance of shortwave radiation for the thermal regime of high-altitude
lakes.
author:
- first_name: Georgiy
full_name: Kirillin, Georgiy
last_name: Kirillin
- first_name: Lijuan
full_name: Wen, Lijuan
last_name: Wen
- first_name: Tom
full_name: Shatwell, Tom
id: '86424'
last_name: Shatwell
orcid: 0000-0002-4520-7916
citation:
ama: 'Kirillin G, Wen L, Shatwell T. Seasonal thermal regime and climatic trends
in lakes of the Tibetan highlands. Hydrology and earth system sciences : HESS
. 2017;21(4):1895-1909. doi:10.5194/hess-21-1895-2017'
apa: 'Kirillin, G., Wen, L., & Shatwell, T. (2017). Seasonal thermal regime
and climatic trends in lakes of the Tibetan highlands. Hydrology and Earth
System Sciences : HESS , 21(4), 1895–1909. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1895-2017'
bjps: 'Kirillin G, Wen L and Shatwell T (2017) Seasonal Thermal Regime and
Climatic Trends in Lakes of the Tibetan Highlands. Hydrology and earth system
sciences : HESS 21, 1895–1909.'
chicago: 'Kirillin, Georgiy, Lijuan Wen, and Tom Shatwell. “Seasonal Thermal Regime
and Climatic Trends in Lakes of the Tibetan Highlands.” Hydrology and Earth
System Sciences : HESS 21, no. 4 (2017): 1895–1909. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1895-2017.'
chicago-de: 'Kirillin, Georgiy, Lijuan Wen und Tom Shatwell. 2017. Seasonal thermal
regime and climatic trends in lakes of the Tibetan highlands. Hydrology and
earth system sciences : HESS 21, Nr. 4: 1895–1909. doi:10.5194/hess-21-1895-2017,
.'
din1505-2-1: 'Kirillin, Georgiy ;
Wen, Lijuan ; Shatwell,
Tom: Seasonal thermal regime and climatic trends in lakes of the Tibetan
highlands. In: Hydrology and earth system sciences : HESS Bd. 21. Göttingen,
Copernicus GmbH (2017), Nr. 4, S. 1895–1909'
havard: 'G. Kirillin, L. Wen, T. Shatwell, Seasonal thermal regime and climatic
trends in lakes of the Tibetan highlands, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences :
HESS . 21 (2017) 1895–1909.'
ieee: 'G. Kirillin, L. Wen, and T. Shatwell, “Seasonal thermal regime and climatic
trends in lakes of the Tibetan highlands,” Hydrology and earth system sciences :
HESS , vol. 21, no. 4, pp. 1895–1909, 2017, doi: 10.5194/hess-21-1895-2017.'
mla: 'Kirillin, Georgiy, et al. “Seasonal Thermal Regime and Climatic Trends in
Lakes of the Tibetan Highlands.” Hydrology and Earth System Sciences : HESS
, vol. 21, no. 4, 2017, pp. 1895–909, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1895-2017.'
short: 'G. Kirillin, L. Wen, T. Shatwell, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences :
HESS 21 (2017) 1895–1909.'
ufg: 'Kirillin, Georgiy/Wen, Lijuan/Shatwell, Tom: Seasonal thermal regime
and climatic trends in lakes of the Tibetan highlands, in: Hydrology and earth
system sciences : HESS 21 (2017), H. 4, S. 1895–1909.'
van: 'Kirillin G, Wen L, Shatwell T. Seasonal thermal regime and climatic trends
in lakes of the Tibetan highlands. Hydrology and earth system sciences : HESS
. 2017;21(4):1895–909.'
date_created: 2024-12-08T20:33:42Z
date_updated: 2024-12-09T10:21:09Z
department:
- _id: DEP8022
doi: 10.5194/hess-21-1895-2017
extern: '1'
intvolume: ' 21'
issue: '4'
language:
- iso: eng
main_file_link:
- open_access: '1'
url: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1895-2017
oa: '1'
page: 1895-1909
place: Göttingen
publication: 'Hydrology and earth system sciences : HESS '
publication_identifier:
eissn:
- 1607-7938
issn:
- '1027-5606 '
publication_status: published
publisher: Copernicus GmbH
quality_controlled: '1'
status: public
title: Seasonal thermal regime and climatic trends in lakes of the Tibetan highlands
type: scientific_journal_article
user_id: '83781'
volume: 21
year: '2017'
...