---
_id: '12853'
abstract:
- lang: eng
  text: Lentic waters integrate atmosphere and catchment processes, and thus ultimately
    capture climate signals. However, studies of climate warming effects on lentic
    waters usually do not sufficiently account for a change in heat flux from the
    catchment through altered inflow temperature and discharge under climate change.
    This is particularly relevant for reservoirs, which are highly impacted by catchment
    hydrology and may be affected by upstream reservoirs or pre‐dams. This study explicitly
    quantified how the catchment and pre‐dams modify the thermal response of Rappbode
    Reservoir, Germany's largest drinking water reservoir system, to climate change.
    We established a catchment‐lake modeling chain in the main reservoir and its two
    pre‐dams utilizing the lake model GOTM, the catchment model mHM, and the stream
    temperature model Air2stream, forced by an ensemble of climate projections under
    RCP2.6 and 8.5 warming scenarios. Results exhibited a warming of 0.27/0.15°C decade<jats:sup>−1</jats:sup>
    for the surface/bottom temperatures of the main reservoir, with approximately
    8%/24% of this warming attributed to the catchment warming, respectively. The
    catchment warming amplified the deep water warming more than at the surface, contrary
    to the atmospheric warming effect, and advanced stratification by about 1 week,
    while having a minor impact on stratification intensity. On the other hand, pre‐dams
    reduced the inflow temperature into the main reservoir in spring, and consequently
    lowered the hypolimnetic temperature and postponed stratification onset. This
    shielded the main reservoir from climate warming, although overall the contribution
    of pre‐dams was minimal. Altogether, our study highlights the importance of catchment
    alterations and seasonality when projecting reservoir warming, and provides insights
    into catchment‐reservoir coupling under climate change.
article_number: e2023WR036808
author:
- first_name: Bo
  full_name: Gai, Bo
  last_name: Gai
- first_name: Rohini
  full_name: Kumar, Rohini
  last_name: Kumar
- first_name: Frank
  full_name: Hüesker, Frank
  last_name: Hüesker
- first_name: Chenxi
  full_name: Mi, Chenxi
  last_name: Mi
- first_name: Xiangzhen
  full_name: Kong, Xiangzhen
  last_name: Kong
- first_name: Bertram
  full_name: Boehrer, Bertram
  last_name: Boehrer
- first_name: Karsten
  full_name: Rinke, Karsten
  last_name: Rinke
- first_name: Tom
  full_name: Shatwell, Tom
  id: '86424'
  last_name: Shatwell
  orcid: 0000-0002-4520-7916
citation:
  ama: 'Gai B, Kumar R, Hüesker F, et al. Catchments Amplify Reservoir Thermal Response
    to Climate Warming. <i>  Water resources research : an AGU journal</i>. 2025;61(1).
    doi:<a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2023wr036808">10.1029/2023wr036808</a>'
  apa: 'Gai, B., Kumar, R., Hüesker, F., Mi, C., Kong, X., Boehrer, B., Rinke, K.,
    &#38; Shatwell, T. (2025). Catchments Amplify Reservoir Thermal Response to Climate
    Warming. <i>  Water Resources Research : An AGU Journal</i>, <i>61</i>(1), Article
    e2023WR036808. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2023wr036808">https://doi.org/10.1029/2023wr036808</a>'
  bjps: '<b>Gai B <i>et al.</i></b> (2025) Catchments Amplify Reservoir Thermal Response
    to Climate Warming. <i>  Water resources research : an AGU journal</i> <b>61</b>.'
  chicago: 'Gai, Bo, Rohini Kumar, Frank Hüesker, Chenxi Mi, Xiangzhen Kong, Bertram
    Boehrer, Karsten Rinke, and Tom Shatwell. “Catchments Amplify Reservoir Thermal
    Response to Climate Warming.” <i>  Water Resources Research : An AGU Journal</i>
    61, no. 1 (2025). <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2023wr036808">https://doi.org/10.1029/2023wr036808</a>.'
  chicago-de: 'Gai, Bo, Rohini Kumar, Frank Hüesker, Chenxi Mi, Xiangzhen Kong, Bertram
    Boehrer, Karsten Rinke und Tom Shatwell. 2025. Catchments Amplify Reservoir Thermal
    Response to Climate Warming. <i>  Water resources research : an AGU journal</i>
    61, Nr. 1. doi:<a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2023wr036808">10.1029/2023wr036808</a>,
    .'
  din1505-2-1: '<span style="font-variant:small-caps;">Gai, Bo</span> ; <span style="font-variant:small-caps;">Kumar,
    Rohini</span> ; <span style="font-variant:small-caps;">Hüesker, Frank</span> ;
    <span style="font-variant:small-caps;">Mi, Chenxi</span> ; <span style="font-variant:small-caps;">Kong,
    Xiangzhen</span> ; <span style="font-variant:small-caps;">Boehrer, Bertram</span>
    ; <span style="font-variant:small-caps;">Rinke, Karsten</span> ; <span style="font-variant:small-caps;">Shatwell,
    Tom</span>: Catchments Amplify Reservoir Thermal Response to Climate Warming.
    In: <i>  Water resources research : an AGU journal</i> Bd. 61. New York, NY, American
    Geophysical Union (AGU) (2025), Nr. 1'
  havard: 'B. Gai, R. Kumar, F. Hüesker, C. Mi, X. Kong, B. Boehrer, K. Rinke, T.
    Shatwell, Catchments Amplify Reservoir Thermal Response to Climate Warming,  
    Water Resources Research : An AGU Journal. 61 (2025).'
  ieee: 'B. Gai <i>et al.</i>, “Catchments Amplify Reservoir Thermal Response to Climate
    Warming,” <i>  Water resources research : an AGU journal</i>, vol. 61, no. 1,
    Art. no. e2023WR036808, 2025, doi: <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2023wr036808">10.1029/2023wr036808</a>.'
  mla: 'Gai, Bo, et al. “Catchments Amplify Reservoir Thermal Response to Climate
    Warming.” <i>  Water Resources Research : An AGU Journal</i>, vol. 61, no. 1,
    e2023WR036808, 2025, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2023wr036808">https://doi.org/10.1029/2023wr036808</a>.'
  short: 'B. Gai, R. Kumar, F. Hüesker, C. Mi, X. Kong, B. Boehrer, K. Rinke, T. Shatwell,
      Water Resources Research : An AGU Journal 61 (2025).'
  ufg: '<b>Gai, Bo u. a.</b>: Catchments Amplify Reservoir Thermal Response to Climate
    Warming, in: <i>  Water resources research : an AGU journal</i> 61 (2025), H.
    1.'
  van: 'Gai B, Kumar R, Hüesker F, Mi C, Kong X, Boehrer B, et al. Catchments Amplify
    Reservoir Thermal Response to Climate Warming.   Water resources research : an
    AGU journal. 2025;61(1).'
date_created: 2025-04-24T06:22:35Z
date_updated: 2025-06-24T14:14:26Z
department:
- _id: DEP8000
- _id: DEP8022
doi: 10.1029/2023wr036808
external_id:
  isi:
  - '001390720200001'
intvolume: '        61'
isi: '1'
issue: '1'
keyword:
- climate change
- coupled catchment-lake model
- thermal characteristics
- drinking water reservoir management
- GOTMstratification
language:
- iso: eng
place: New York, NY
publication: '  Water resources research : an AGU journal'
publication_identifier:
  eissn:
  - 1944-7973
  issn:
  - 0043-1397
publication_status: published
publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
status: public
title: Catchments Amplify Reservoir Thermal Response to Climate Warming
type: scientific_journal_article
user_id: '83781'
volume: 61
year: '2025'
...
---
_id: '12855'
abstract:
- lang: eng
  text: Global warming is shifting the thermal dynamics of lakes, with resulting climatic
    variability heavily affecting their mixing dynamics. We present a dual ensemble
    workflow coupling climate models with lake models. We used a large set of simulations
    across multiple domains, multi‐scenario, and multi GCM‐ RCM combinations from
    CORDEX data. We forced a set of multiple hydrodynamic lake models by these multiple
    climate simulations to explore climate change impacts on lakes. We also quantified
    the contributions from the different models to the overall uncertainty. We employed
    this workflow to investigate the effects of climate change on Lake Sevan (Armenia).
    We predicted for the end of the 21st century, under RCP 8.5, a sharp increase
    in surface temperature  and substantial bottom warming , longer stratification
    periods (+55 days) and disappearance of ice cover leading to a shift in mixing
    regime. Increased insufficient cooling during warmer winters points to the vulnerability
    of Lake Sevan to climate change. Our workflow leverages the strengths of multiple
    models at several levels of the model chain to provide a more robust projection
    and at the same time a better uncertainty estimate that accounts for the contributions
    of the different model levels to overall uncertainty. Although for specific variables,
    for example, summer bottom temperature, single lake models may perform better,
    the full ensemble provides a robust estimate of thermal dynamics that has a high
    transferability so that our workflow can be a blueprint for climate impact studies
    in other systems.
author:
- first_name: Muhammed
  full_name: Shikhani, Muhammed
  last_name: Shikhani
- first_name: Johannes
  full_name: Feldbauer, Johannes
  last_name: Feldbauer
- first_name: Robert
  full_name: Ladwig, Robert
  last_name: Ladwig
- first_name: Daniel
  full_name: Mercado‐Bettín, Daniel
  last_name: Mercado‐Bettín
- first_name: Tadhg N.
  full_name: Moore, Tadhg N.
  last_name: Moore
- first_name: Artur
  full_name: Gevorgyan, Artur
  last_name: Gevorgyan
- first_name: Amalya
  full_name: Misakyan, Amalya
  last_name: Misakyan
- first_name: Chenxi
  full_name: Mi, Chenxi
  last_name: Mi
- first_name: Martin
  full_name: Schultze, Martin
  last_name: Schultze
- first_name: Bertram
  full_name: Boehrer, Bertram
  last_name: Boehrer
- first_name: Tom
  full_name: Shatwell, Tom
  id: '86424'
  last_name: Shatwell
  orcid: 0000-0002-4520-7916
- first_name: Klemens
  full_name: Barfus, Klemens
  last_name: Barfus
- first_name: Karsten
  full_name: Rinke, Karsten
  last_name: Rinke
citation:
  ama: 'Shikhani M, Feldbauer J, Ladwig R, et al. Combining a Multi‐Lake Model Ensemble
    and a Multi‐Domain CORDEX Climate Data Ensemble for Assessing Climate Change Impacts
    on Lake Sevan. <i>Water resources research : an AGU journal</i>. 2024;60(11).
    doi:<a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2023wr036511">10.1029/2023wr036511</a>'
  apa: 'Shikhani, M., Feldbauer, J., Ladwig, R., Mercado‐Bettín, D., Moore, T. N.,
    Gevorgyan, A., Misakyan, A., Mi, C., Schultze, M., Boehrer, B., Shatwell, T.,
    Barfus, K., &#38; Rinke, K. (2024). Combining a Multi‐Lake Model Ensemble and
    a Multi‐Domain CORDEX Climate Data Ensemble for Assessing Climate Change Impacts
    on Lake Sevan. <i>Water Resources Research : An AGU Journal</i>, <i>60</i>(11).
    <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2023wr036511">https://doi.org/10.1029/2023wr036511</a>'
  bjps: '<b>Shikhani M <i>et al.</i></b> (2024) Combining a Multi‐Lake Model Ensemble
    and a Multi‐Domain CORDEX Climate Data Ensemble for Assessing Climate Change Impacts
    on Lake Sevan. <i>Water resources research : an AGU journal</i> <b>60</b>.'
  chicago: 'Shikhani, Muhammed, Johannes Feldbauer, Robert Ladwig, Daniel Mercado‐Bettín,
    Tadhg N. Moore, Artur Gevorgyan, Amalya Misakyan, et al. “Combining a Multi‐Lake
    Model Ensemble and a Multi‐Domain CORDEX Climate Data Ensemble for Assessing Climate
    Change Impacts on Lake Sevan.” <i>Water Resources Research : An AGU Journal</i>
    60, no. 11 (2024). <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2023wr036511">https://doi.org/10.1029/2023wr036511</a>.'
  chicago-de: 'Shikhani, Muhammed, Johannes Feldbauer, Robert Ladwig, Daniel Mercado‐Bettín,
    Tadhg N. Moore, Artur Gevorgyan, Amalya Misakyan, u. a. 2024. Combining a Multi‐Lake
    Model Ensemble and a Multi‐Domain CORDEX Climate Data Ensemble for Assessing Climate
    Change Impacts on Lake Sevan. <i>Water resources research : an AGU journal</i>
    60, Nr. 11. doi:<a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2023wr036511">10.1029/2023wr036511</a>,
    .'
  din1505-2-1: '<span style="font-variant:small-caps;"><span style="font-variant:small-caps;">Shikhani,
    Muhammed</span> ; <span style="font-variant:small-caps;">Feldbauer, Johannes</span>
    ; <span style="font-variant:small-caps;">Ladwig, Robert</span> ; <span style="font-variant:small-caps;">Mercado‐Bettín,
    Daniel</span> ; <span style="font-variant:small-caps;">Moore, Tadhg N.</span>
    ; <span style="font-variant:small-caps;">Gevorgyan, Artur</span> ; <span style="font-variant:small-caps;">Misakyan,
    Amalya</span> ; <span style="font-variant:small-caps;">Mi, Chenxi</span> ; u. a.</span>:
    Combining a Multi‐Lake Model Ensemble and a Multi‐Domain CORDEX Climate Data Ensemble
    for Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Lake Sevan. In: <i>Water resources research :
    an AGU journal</i> Bd. 60. New York, NY, American Geophysical Union (AGU) (2024),
    Nr. 11'
  havard: 'M. Shikhani, J. Feldbauer, R. Ladwig, D. Mercado‐Bettín, T.N. Moore, A.
    Gevorgyan, A. Misakyan, C. Mi, M. Schultze, B. Boehrer, T. Shatwell, K. Barfus,
    K. Rinke, Combining a Multi‐Lake Model Ensemble and a Multi‐Domain CORDEX Climate
    Data Ensemble for Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Lake Sevan, Water Resources
    Research : An AGU Journal. 60 (2024).'
  ieee: 'M. Shikhani <i>et al.</i>, “Combining a Multi‐Lake Model Ensemble and a Multi‐Domain
    CORDEX Climate Data Ensemble for Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Lake Sevan,”
    <i>Water resources research : an AGU journal</i>, vol. 60, no. 11, 2024, doi:
    <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2023wr036511">10.1029/2023wr036511</a>.'
  mla: 'Shikhani, Muhammed, et al. “Combining a Multi‐Lake Model Ensemble and a Multi‐Domain
    CORDEX Climate Data Ensemble for Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Lake Sevan.”
    <i>Water Resources Research : An AGU Journal</i>, vol. 60, no. 11, 2024, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2023wr036511">https://doi.org/10.1029/2023wr036511</a>.'
  short: 'M. Shikhani, J. Feldbauer, R. Ladwig, D. Mercado‐Bettín, T.N. Moore, A.
    Gevorgyan, A. Misakyan, C. Mi, M. Schultze, B. Boehrer, T. Shatwell, K. Barfus,
    K. Rinke, Water Resources Research : An AGU Journal 60 (2024).'
  ufg: '<b>Shikhani, Muhammed u. a.</b>: Combining a Multi‐Lake Model Ensemble and
    a Multi‐Domain CORDEX Climate Data Ensemble for Assessing Climate Change Impacts
    on Lake Sevan, in: <i>Water resources research : an AGU journal</i> 60 (2024),
    H. 11.'
  van: 'Shikhani M, Feldbauer J, Ladwig R, Mercado‐Bettín D, Moore TN, Gevorgyan A,
    et al. Combining a Multi‐Lake Model Ensemble and a Multi‐Domain CORDEX Climate
    Data Ensemble for Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Lake Sevan. Water resources
    research : an AGU journal. 2024;60(11).'
date_created: 2025-04-24T06:41:06Z
date_updated: 2025-06-25T13:09:00Z
department:
- _id: DEP8000
- _id: DEP8022
doi: 10.1029/2023wr036511
external_id:
  isi:
  - '001370328800001'
  pmid:
  - '39582854'
intvolume: '        60'
isi: '1'
issue: '11'
keyword:
- multi model ensemble (MME)
- CORDEX
- LakeEnsemblR
- lake modeling
- climate change impacts
- variance decomposition
language:
- iso: eng
place: New York, NY
pmid: '1'
publication: 'Water resources research : an AGU journal'
publication_identifier:
  eissn:
  - 1944-7973
  issn:
  - 0043-1397
publication_status: published
publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
quality_controlled: '1'
status: public
title: Combining a Multi‐Lake Model Ensemble and a Multi‐Domain CORDEX Climate Data
  Ensemble for Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Lake Sevan
type: scientific_journal_article
user_id: '83781'
volume: 60
year: '2024'
...