@misc{12224,
  abstract     = {{Empirical evidence demonstrates that lakes and reservoirs are warming across the globe. Consequently, there is an increased need to project future changes in lake thermal structure and resulting changes in lake biogeochemistry in order to plan for the likely impacts. Previous studies of the impacts of climate change on lakes have often relied on a single model forced with limited scenario-driven projections of future climate for a relatively small number of lakes. As a result, our understanding of the effects of climate change on lakes is fragmentary, based on scattered studies using different data sources and modelling protocols, and mainly focused on individual lakes or lake regions. This has precluded identification of the main impacts of climate change on lakes at global and regional scales and has likely contributed to the lack of lake water quality considerations in policy-relevant documents, such as the Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Here, we describe a simulation protocol developed by the Lake Sector of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) for simulating climate change impacts on lakes using an ensemble of lake models and climate change scenarios for ISIMIP phases 2 and 3. The protocol prescribes lake simulations driven by climate forcing from gridded observations and different Earth system models under various representative greenhouse gas concentration pathways (RCPs), all consistently bias-corrected on a 0.5∘ × 0.5∘ global grid. In ISIMIP phase 2, 11 lake models were forced with these data to project the thermal structure of 62 well-studied lakes where data were available for calibration under historical conditions, and using uncalibrated models for 17 500 lakes defined for all global grid cells containing lakes. In ISIMIP phase 3, this approach was expanded to consider more lakes, more models, and more processes. The ISIMIP Lake Sector is the largest international effort to project future water temperature, thermal structure, and ice phenology of lakes at local and global scales and paves the way for future simulations of the impacts of climate change on water quality and biogeochemistry in lakes.}},
  author       = {{Golub, Malgorzata and Thiery, Wim and Marcé, Rafael and Pierson, Don and Vanderkelen, Inne and Mercado-Bettin, Daniel and Woolway, R. Iestyn and Grant, Luke and Jennings, Eleanor and Kraemer, Benjamin M. and Schewe, Jacob and Zhao, Fang and Frieler, Katja and Mengel, Matthias and Bogomolov, Vasiliy Y. and Bouffard, Damien and Côté, Marianne and Couture, Raoul-Marie and Debolskiy, Andrey V. and Droppers, Bram and Gal, Gideon and Guo, Mingyang and Janssen, Annette B. G. and Kirillin, Georgiy and Ladwig, Robert and Magee, Madeline and Moore, Tadhg and Perroud, Marjorie and Piccolroaz, Sebastiano and Raaman Vinnaa, Love and Schmid, Martin and Shatwell, Tom and Stepanenko, Victor M. and Tan, Zeli and Woodward, Bronwyn and Yao, Huaxia and Adrian, Rita and Allan, Mathew and Anneville, Orlane and Arvola, Lauri and Atkins, Karen and Boegman, Leon and Carey, Cayelan and Christianson, Kyle and de Eyto, Elvira and DeGasperi, Curtis and Grechushnikova, Maria and Hejzlar, Josef and Joehnk, Klaus and Jones, Ian D. and Laas, Alo and Mackay, Eleanor B. and Mammarella, Ivan and Markensten, Hampus and McBride, Chris and Özkundakci, Deniz and Potes, Miguel and Rinke, Karsten and Robertson, Dale and Rusak, James A. and Salgado, Rui and van der Linden​​​​​​​, Leon and Verburg, Piet and Wain, Danielle and Ward, Nicole K. and Wollrab, Sabine and Zdorovennova, Galina}},
  booktitle    = {{Geoscientific model development : GMD ; an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences Union}},
  issn         = {{1991-9603}},
  number       = {{11}},
  pages        = {{4597--4623}},
  publisher    = {{Copernicus Publ. }},
  title        = {{{A framework for ensemble modelling of climate change impacts on lakes worldwide: the ISIMIP Lake Sector}}},
  doi          = {{10.5194/gmd-15-4597-2022}},
  volume       = {{15}},
  year         = {{2022}},
}