---
_id: '12224'
abstract:
- lang: eng
text: Empirical evidence demonstrates that lakes and reservoirs are warming across
the globe. Consequently, there is an increased need to project future changes
in lake thermal structure and resulting changes in lake biogeochemistry in order
to plan for the likely impacts. Previous studies of the impacts of climate change
on lakes have often relied on a single model forced with limited scenario-driven
projections of future climate for a relatively small number of lakes. As a result,
our understanding of the effects of climate change on lakes is fragmentary, based
on scattered studies using different data sources and modelling protocols, and
mainly focused on individual lakes or lake regions. This has precluded identification
of the main impacts of climate change on lakes at global and regional scales and
has likely contributed to the lack of lake water quality considerations in policy-relevant
documents, such as the Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC). Here, we describe a simulation protocol developed by the Lake Sector
of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) for simulating
climate change impacts on lakes using an ensemble of lake models and climate change
scenarios for ISIMIP phases 2 and 3. The protocol prescribes lake simulations
driven by climate forcing from gridded observations and different Earth system
models under various representative greenhouse gas concentration pathways (RCPs),
all consistently bias-corrected on a 0.5∘ × 0.5∘ global grid. In ISIMIP phase
2, 11 lake models were forced with these data to project the thermal structure
of 62 well-studied lakes where data were available for calibration under historical
conditions, and using uncalibrated models for 17 500 lakes defined for all global
grid cells containing lakes. In ISIMIP phase 3, this approach was expanded to
consider more lakes, more models, and more processes. The ISIMIP Lake Sector is
the largest international effort to project future water temperature, thermal
structure, and ice phenology of lakes at local and global scales and paves the
way for future simulations of the impacts of climate change on water quality and
biogeochemistry in lakes.
author:
- first_name: Malgorzata
full_name: Golub, Malgorzata
last_name: Golub
- first_name: Wim
full_name: Thiery, Wim
last_name: Thiery
- first_name: Rafael
full_name: Marcé, Rafael
last_name: Marcé
- first_name: Don
full_name: Pierson, Don
last_name: Pierson
- first_name: Inne
full_name: Vanderkelen, Inne
last_name: Vanderkelen
- first_name: Daniel
full_name: Mercado-Bettin, Daniel
last_name: Mercado-Bettin
- first_name: R. Iestyn
full_name: Woolway, R. Iestyn
last_name: Woolway
- first_name: Luke
full_name: Grant, Luke
last_name: Grant
- first_name: Eleanor
full_name: Jennings, Eleanor
last_name: Jennings
- first_name: Benjamin M.
full_name: Kraemer, Benjamin M.
last_name: Kraemer
- first_name: Jacob
full_name: Schewe, Jacob
last_name: Schewe
- first_name: Fang
full_name: Zhao, Fang
last_name: Zhao
- first_name: Katja
full_name: Frieler, Katja
last_name: Frieler
- first_name: Matthias
full_name: Mengel, Matthias
last_name: Mengel
- first_name: Vasiliy Y.
full_name: Bogomolov, Vasiliy Y.
last_name: Bogomolov
- first_name: Damien
full_name: Bouffard, Damien
last_name: Bouffard
- first_name: Marianne
full_name: Côté, Marianne
last_name: Côté
- first_name: Raoul-Marie
full_name: Couture, Raoul-Marie
last_name: Couture
- first_name: Andrey V.
full_name: Debolskiy, Andrey V.
last_name: Debolskiy
- first_name: Bram
full_name: Droppers, Bram
last_name: Droppers
- first_name: Gideon
full_name: Gal, Gideon
last_name: Gal
- first_name: Mingyang
full_name: Guo, Mingyang
last_name: Guo
- first_name: Annette B. G.
full_name: Janssen, Annette B. G.
last_name: Janssen
- first_name: Georgiy
full_name: Kirillin, Georgiy
last_name: Kirillin
- first_name: Robert
full_name: Ladwig, Robert
last_name: Ladwig
- first_name: Madeline
full_name: Magee, Madeline
last_name: Magee
- first_name: Tadhg
full_name: Moore, Tadhg
last_name: Moore
- first_name: Marjorie
full_name: Perroud, Marjorie
last_name: Perroud
- first_name: Sebastiano
full_name: Piccolroaz, Sebastiano
last_name: Piccolroaz
- first_name: Love
full_name: Raaman Vinnaa, Love
last_name: Raaman Vinnaa
- first_name: Martin
full_name: Schmid, Martin
last_name: Schmid
- first_name: Tom
full_name: Shatwell, Tom
id: '86424'
last_name: Shatwell
orcid: 0000-0002-4520-7916
- first_name: Victor M.
full_name: Stepanenko, Victor M.
last_name: Stepanenko
- first_name: Zeli
full_name: Tan, Zeli
last_name: Tan
- first_name: Bronwyn
full_name: Woodward, Bronwyn
last_name: Woodward
- first_name: Huaxia
full_name: Yao, Huaxia
last_name: Yao
- first_name: Rita
full_name: Adrian, Rita
last_name: Adrian
- first_name: Mathew
full_name: Allan, Mathew
last_name: Allan
- first_name: Orlane
full_name: Anneville, Orlane
last_name: Anneville
- first_name: Lauri
full_name: Arvola, Lauri
last_name: Arvola
- first_name: Karen
full_name: Atkins, Karen
last_name: Atkins
- first_name: Leon
full_name: Boegman, Leon
last_name: Boegman
- first_name: Cayelan
full_name: Carey, Cayelan
last_name: Carey
- first_name: Kyle
full_name: Christianson, Kyle
last_name: Christianson
- first_name: Elvira
full_name: de Eyto, Elvira
last_name: de Eyto
- first_name: Curtis
full_name: DeGasperi, Curtis
last_name: DeGasperi
- first_name: Maria
full_name: Grechushnikova, Maria
last_name: Grechushnikova
- first_name: Josef
full_name: Hejzlar, Josef
last_name: Hejzlar
- first_name: Klaus
full_name: Joehnk, Klaus
last_name: Joehnk
- first_name: Ian D.
full_name: Jones, Ian D.
last_name: Jones
- first_name: Alo
full_name: Laas, Alo
last_name: Laas
- first_name: Eleanor B.
full_name: Mackay, Eleanor B.
last_name: Mackay
- first_name: Ivan
full_name: Mammarella, Ivan
last_name: Mammarella
- first_name: Hampus
full_name: Markensten, Hampus
last_name: Markensten
- first_name: Chris
full_name: McBride, Chris
last_name: McBride
- first_name: Deniz
full_name: Özkundakci, Deniz
last_name: Özkundakci
- first_name: Miguel
full_name: Potes, Miguel
last_name: Potes
- first_name: Karsten
full_name: Rinke, Karsten
last_name: Rinke
- first_name: Dale
full_name: Robertson, Dale
last_name: Robertson
- first_name: James A.
full_name: Rusak, James A.
last_name: Rusak
- first_name: Rui
full_name: Salgado, Rui
last_name: Salgado
- first_name: Leon
full_name: van der Linden, Leon
last_name: van der Linden
- first_name: Piet
full_name: Verburg, Piet
last_name: Verburg
- first_name: Danielle
full_name: Wain, Danielle
last_name: Wain
- first_name: Nicole K.
full_name: Ward, Nicole K.
last_name: Ward
- first_name: Sabine
full_name: Wollrab, Sabine
last_name: Wollrab
- first_name: Galina
full_name: Zdorovennova, Galina
last_name: Zdorovennova
citation:
ama: 'Golub M, Thiery W, Marcé R, et al. A framework for ensemble modelling of climate
change impacts on lakes worldwide: the ISIMIP Lake Sector. Geoscientific model
development : GMD ; an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences
Union. 2022;15(11):4597-4623. doi:10.5194/gmd-15-4597-2022'
apa: 'Golub, M., Thiery, W., Marcé, R., Pierson, D., Vanderkelen, I., Mercado-Bettin,
D., Woolway, R. I., Grant, L., Jennings, E., Kraemer, B. M., Schewe, J., Zhao,
F., Frieler, K., Mengel, M., Bogomolov, V. Y., Bouffard, D., Côté, M., Couture,
R.-M., Debolskiy, A. V., … Zdorovennova, G. (2022). A framework for ensemble modelling
of climate change impacts on lakes worldwide: the ISIMIP Lake Sector. Geoscientific
Model Development : GMD ; an Interactive Open Access Journal of the European Geosciences
Union, 15(11), 4597–4623. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4597-2022'
bjps: 'Golub M et al. (2022) A Framework for Ensemble Modelling of
Climate Change Impacts on Lakes Worldwide: The ISIMIP Lake Sector. Geoscientific
model development : GMD ; an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences
Union 15, 4597–4623.'
chicago: 'Golub, Malgorzata, Wim Thiery, Rafael Marcé, Don Pierson, Inne Vanderkelen,
Daniel Mercado-Bettin, R. Iestyn Woolway, et al. “A Framework for Ensemble Modelling
of Climate Change Impacts on Lakes Worldwide: The ISIMIP Lake Sector.” Geoscientific
Model Development : GMD ; an Interactive Open Access Journal of the European Geosciences
Union 15, no. 11 (2022): 4597–4623. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4597-2022.'
chicago-de: 'Golub, Malgorzata, Wim Thiery, Rafael Marcé, Don Pierson, Inne Vanderkelen,
Daniel Mercado-Bettin, R. Iestyn Woolway, u. a. 2022. A framework for ensemble
modelling of climate change impacts on lakes worldwide: the ISIMIP Lake Sector.
Geoscientific model development : GMD ; an interactive open access journal
of the European Geosciences Union 15, Nr. 11: 4597–4623. doi:10.5194/gmd-15-4597-2022,
.'
din1505-2-1: 'Golub,
Malgorzata ; Thiery, Wim
; Marcé, Rafael ; Pierson,
Don ; Vanderkelen, Inne ;
Mercado-Bettin, Daniel ; Woolway,
R. Iestyn ; Grant, Luke ;
u. a.: A framework for ensemble modelling of climate change impacts on
lakes worldwide: the ISIMIP Lake Sector. In: Geoscientific model development :
GMD ; an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences Union
Bd. 15. Göttingen, Copernicus Publ. (2022), Nr. 11, S. 4597–4623'
havard: 'M. Golub, W. Thiery, R. Marcé, D. Pierson, I. Vanderkelen, D. Mercado-Bettin,
R.I. Woolway, L. Grant, E. Jennings, B.M. Kraemer, J. Schewe, F. Zhao, K. Frieler,
M. Mengel, V.Y. Bogomolov, D. Bouffard, M. Côté, R.-M. Couture, A.V. Debolskiy,
B. Droppers, G. Gal, M. Guo, A.B.G. Janssen, G. Kirillin, R. Ladwig, M. Magee,
T. Moore, M. Perroud, S. Piccolroaz, L. Raaman Vinnaa, M. Schmid, T. Shatwell,
V.M. Stepanenko, Z. Tan, B. Woodward, H. Yao, R. Adrian, M. Allan, O. Anneville,
L. Arvola, K. Atkins, L. Boegman, C. Carey, K. Christianson, E. de Eyto, C. DeGasperi,
M. Grechushnikova, J. Hejzlar, K. Joehnk, I.D. Jones, A. Laas, E.B. Mackay, I.
Mammarella, H. Markensten, C. McBride, D. Özkundakci, M. Potes, K. Rinke, D. Robertson,
J.A. Rusak, R. Salgado, L. van der Linden, P. Verburg, D. Wain, N.K. Ward,
S. Wollrab, G. Zdorovennova, A framework for ensemble modelling of climate change
impacts on lakes worldwide: the ISIMIP Lake Sector, Geoscientific Model Development :
GMD ; an Interactive Open Access Journal of the European Geosciences Union. 15
(2022) 4597–4623.'
ieee: 'M. Golub et al., “A framework for ensemble modelling of climate change
impacts on lakes worldwide: the ISIMIP Lake Sector,” Geoscientific model development :
GMD ; an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences Union,
vol. 15, no. 11, pp. 4597–4623, 2022, doi: 10.5194/gmd-15-4597-2022.'
mla: 'Golub, Malgorzata, et al. “A Framework for Ensemble Modelling of Climate Change
Impacts on Lakes Worldwide: The ISIMIP Lake Sector.” Geoscientific Model Development :
GMD ; an Interactive Open Access Journal of the European Geosciences Union,
vol. 15, no. 11, 2022, pp. 4597–623, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4597-2022.'
short: 'M. Golub, W. Thiery, R. Marcé, D. Pierson, I. Vanderkelen, D. Mercado-Bettin,
R.I. Woolway, L. Grant, E. Jennings, B.M. Kraemer, J. Schewe, F. Zhao, K. Frieler,
M. Mengel, V.Y. Bogomolov, D. Bouffard, M. Côté, R.-M. Couture, A.V. Debolskiy,
B. Droppers, G. Gal, M. Guo, A.B.G. Janssen, G. Kirillin, R. Ladwig, M. Magee,
T. Moore, M. Perroud, S. Piccolroaz, L. Raaman Vinnaa, M. Schmid, T. Shatwell,
V.M. Stepanenko, Z. Tan, B. Woodward, H. Yao, R. Adrian, M. Allan, O. Anneville,
L. Arvola, K. Atkins, L. Boegman, C. Carey, K. Christianson, E. de Eyto, C. DeGasperi,
M. Grechushnikova, J. Hejzlar, K. Joehnk, I.D. Jones, A. Laas, E.B. Mackay, I.
Mammarella, H. Markensten, C. McBride, D. Özkundakci, M. Potes, K. Rinke, D. Robertson,
J.A. Rusak, R. Salgado, L. van der Linden, P. Verburg, D. Wain, N.K. Ward,
S. Wollrab, G. Zdorovennova, Geoscientific Model Development : GMD ; an Interactive
Open Access Journal of the European Geosciences Union 15 (2022) 4597–4623.'
ufg: 'Golub, Malgorzata u. a.: A framework for ensemble modelling of climate
change impacts on lakes worldwide: the ISIMIP Lake Sector, in: Geoscientific
model development : GMD ; an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences
Union 15 (2022), H. 11, S. 4597–4623.'
van: 'Golub M, Thiery W, Marcé R, Pierson D, Vanderkelen I, Mercado-Bettin D, et
al. A framework for ensemble modelling of climate change impacts on lakes worldwide:
the ISIMIP Lake Sector. Geoscientific model development : GMD ; an interactive
open access journal of the European Geosciences Union. 2022;15(11):4597–623.'
date_created: 2024-12-08T19:54:03Z
date_updated: 2024-12-11T13:07:49Z
department:
- _id: DEP8022
doi: 10.5194/gmd-15-4597-2022
extern: '1'
intvolume: ' 15'
issue: '11'
language:
- iso: eng
main_file_link:
- open_access: '1'
url: https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4597-2022
oa: '1'
page: 4597-4623
place: Göttingen
publication: 'Geoscientific model development : GMD ; an interactive open access journal
of the European Geosciences Union'
publication_identifier:
eissn:
- 1991-9603
issn:
- '1991-959X '
publication_status: published
publisher: 'Copernicus Publ. '
quality_controlled: '1'
status: public
title: 'A framework for ensemble modelling of climate change impacts on lakes worldwide:
the ISIMIP Lake Sector'
type: scientific_journal_article
user_id: '83781'
volume: 15
year: '2022'
...