---
_id: '12236'
abstract:
- lang: eng
text: The physical response of lakes to climate warming is regionally variable and
highly dependent on individual lake characteristics, making generalizations about
their development difficult. To qualify the role of individual lake characteristics
in their response to regionally homogeneous warming, we simulated temperature,
ice cover, and mixing in four intensively studied German lakes of varying morphology
and mixing regime with a one-dimensional lake model. We forced the model with
an ensemble of 12 climate projections (RCP4.5) up to 2100. The lakes were projected
to warm at 0.10–0.11 ∘C decade−1, which is 75 %–90 % of the projected air temperature
trend. In simulations, surface temperatures increased strongly in winter and spring,
but little or not at all in summer and autumn. Mean bottom temperatures were projected
to increase in all lakes, with steeper trends in winter and in shallower lakes.
Modelled ice thaw and summer stratification advanced by 1.5–2.2 and 1.4–1.8 days decade−1
respectively, whereas autumn turnover and winter freeze timing was less sensitive.
The projected summer mixed-layer depth was unaffected by warming but sensitive
to changes in water transparency. By mid-century, the frequency of ice and stratification-free
winters was projected to increase by about 20 %, making ice cover rare and shifting
the two deeper dimictic lakes to a predominantly monomictic regime. The polymictic
lake was unlikely to become dimictic by the end of the century. A sensitivity
analysis predicted that decreasing transparency would dampen the effect of warming
on mean temperature but amplify its effect on stratification. However, this interaction
was only predicted to occur in clear lakes, and not in the study lakes at their
historical transparency. Not only lake morphology, but also mixing regime determines
how heat is stored and ultimately how lakes respond to climate warming. Seasonal
differences in climate warming rates are thus important and require more attention.
author:
- first_name: Tom
full_name: Shatwell, Tom
id: '86424'
last_name: Shatwell
orcid: 0000-0002-4520-7916
- first_name: Wim
full_name: Thiery, Wim
last_name: Thiery
- first_name: Georgiy
full_name: Kirillin, Georgiy
last_name: Kirillin
citation:
ama: 'Shatwell T, Thiery W, Kirillin G. Future projections of temperature and mixing
regime of European temperate lakes. Hydrology and earth system sciences : HESS
. 2019;23(3):1533-1551. doi:10.5194/hess-23-1533-2019'
apa: 'Shatwell, T., Thiery, W., & Kirillin, G. (2019). Future projections of
temperature and mixing regime of European temperate lakes. Hydrology and Earth
System Sciences : HESS , 23(3), 1533–1551. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1533-2019'
bjps: 'Shatwell T, Thiery W and Kirillin G (2019) Future Projections of Temperature
and Mixing Regime of European Temperate Lakes. Hydrology and earth system sciences :
HESS 23, 1533–1551.'
chicago: 'Shatwell, Tom, Wim Thiery, and Georgiy Kirillin. “Future Projections of
Temperature and Mixing Regime of European Temperate Lakes.” Hydrology and Earth
System Sciences : HESS 23, no. 3 (2019): 1533–51. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1533-2019.'
chicago-de: 'Shatwell, Tom, Wim Thiery und Georgiy Kirillin. 2019. Future projections
of temperature and mixing regime of European temperate lakes. Hydrology and
earth system sciences : HESS 23, Nr. 3: 1533–1551. doi:10.5194/hess-23-1533-2019,
.'
din1505-2-1: 'Shatwell, Tom ; Thiery, Wim ; Kirillin,
Georgiy: Future projections of temperature and mixing regime of European
temperate lakes. In: Hydrology and earth system sciences : HESS Bd. 23.
Göttingen, Copernicus GmbH (2019), Nr. 3, S. 1533–1551'
havard: 'T. Shatwell, W. Thiery, G. Kirillin, Future projections of temperature
and mixing regime of European temperate lakes, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences :
HESS . 23 (2019) 1533–1551.'
ieee: 'T. Shatwell, W. Thiery, and G. Kirillin, “Future projections of temperature
and mixing regime of European temperate lakes,” Hydrology and earth system
sciences : HESS , vol. 23, no. 3, pp. 1533–1551, 2019, doi: 10.5194/hess-23-1533-2019.'
mla: 'Shatwell, Tom, et al. “Future Projections of Temperature and Mixing Regime
of European Temperate Lakes.” Hydrology and Earth System Sciences : HESS ,
vol. 23, no. 3, 2019, pp. 1533–51, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1533-2019.'
short: 'T. Shatwell, W. Thiery, G. Kirillin, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences :
HESS 23 (2019) 1533–1551.'
ufg: 'Shatwell, Tom/Thiery, Wim/Kirillin, Georgiy: Future projections of
temperature and mixing regime of European temperate lakes, in: Hydrology and
earth system sciences : HESS 23 (2019), H. 3, S. 1533–1551.'
van: 'Shatwell T, Thiery W, Kirillin G. Future projections of temperature and mixing
regime of European temperate lakes. Hydrology and earth system sciences : HESS
. 2019;23(3):1533–51.'
date_created: 2024-12-08T20:27:48Z
date_updated: 2024-12-09T10:20:50Z
department:
- _id: DEP8022
doi: 10.5194/hess-23-1533-2019
extern: '1'
intvolume: ' 23'
issue: '3'
language:
- iso: eng
main_file_link:
- open_access: '1'
url: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1533-2019
oa: '1'
page: 1533-1551
place: Göttingen
publication: 'Hydrology and earth system sciences : HESS '
publication_identifier:
eissn:
- 1607-7938
issn:
- 1027-5606
publication_status: published
publisher: Copernicus GmbH
quality_controlled: '1'
status: public
title: Future projections of temperature and mixing regime of European temperate lakes
type: scientific_journal_article
user_id: '83781'
volume: 23
year: '2019'
...