--- _id: '13462' abstract: - lang: eng text: Traditional project management literature often portrays heuristics as flawed shortcuts leading to errors, advocating for rational, debiasing strategies to prevent cost overruns and benefit shortfalls. This is problematic as heuristics can be effective. Building on Gigerenzer’s concept of fast-and-frugal heuristics, this study examines the use of such smart heuristics by senior managers in a large engineering consultancy firm during the early bid/no-bid decision-making phase of infrastructure projects. Employing a qualitative method from the naturalistic decision-making program, the research uncovers a decision strategy termed "thresholding." This strategy distills extensive experience and interpretation of ambiguous information into binary decisions, effectively de-selecting projects that could be potentially disastrous. The approach also gives credence to agency, as it only deselects disasters but keeps many potential alternatives in the portfolio to mature into potentially ‘good projects’. At the same time, it addresses Flyvbjerg’s call for some scrutiny at the front end of projects to avoid catastrophic projects that start on the wrong premises. Our chapter adds to the debate on the Hiding Hand by not being concerned with the “hidden”, but instead, with what can be known in the early fuzzy front-end of projects. author: - first_name: ' Joana ' full_name: 'Geraldi, Joana ' last_name: Geraldi - first_name: 'Verena ' full_name: 'Stingl, Verena ' last_name: Stingl - first_name: Maximilian full_name: Schriewersmann, Maximilian id: '79121' last_name: Schriewersmann citation: ama: 'Geraldi Joana , Stingl V, Schriewersmann M. At the Brink of a Project : Heuristics to Block Potential Project Disasters during the Early Project Opportunity Screening. In: Ika LA, Pinto JK, eds. Cambridge Handbook of Project Behavior . Cambridge University Press; 2025:216-232. doi:10.1017/9781009322737' apa: 'Geraldi, Joana , Stingl, V., & Schriewersmann, M. (2025). At the Brink of a Project : Heuristics to Block Potential Project Disasters during the Early Project Opportunity Screening. In L. A. Ika & J. K. Pinto (Eds.), Cambridge handbook of project behavior (pp. 216–232). Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009322737' bjps: 'Geraldi Joana , Stingl V and Schriewersmann M (2025) At the Brink of a Project : Heuristics to Block Potential Project Disasters during the Early Project Opportunity Screening. In Ika LA and Pinto JK (eds), Cambridge Handbook of Project Behavior . Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, pp. 216–232.' chicago: 'Geraldi, Joana , Verena Stingl, and Maximilian Schriewersmann. “At the Brink of a Project : Heuristics to Block Potential Project Disasters during the Early Project Opportunity Screening.” In Cambridge Handbook of Project Behavior , edited by Lavagnon A. Ika and Jeffrey K. Pinto, 216–32. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2025. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009322737.' chicago-de: 'Geraldi, Joana , Verena Stingl und Maximilian Schriewersmann. 2025. At the Brink of a Project : Heuristics to Block Potential Project Disasters during the Early Project Opportunity Screening. In: Cambridge handbook of project behavior , hg. von Lavagnon A. Ika und Jeffrey K. Pinto, 216–232. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. doi:10.1017/9781009322737, .' din1505-2-1: 'Geraldi, Joana ; Stingl, Verena ; Schriewersmann, Maximilian: At the Brink of a Project : Heuristics to Block Potential Project Disasters during the Early Project Opportunity Screening. In: Ika, L. A. ; Pinto, J. K. (Hrsg.): Cambridge handbook of project behavior . Cambridge : Cambridge University Press, 2025, S. 216–232' havard: 'Joana Geraldi, V. Stingl, M. Schriewersmann, At the Brink of a Project : Heuristics to Block Potential Project Disasters during the Early Project Opportunity Screening, in: L.A. Ika, J.K. Pinto (Eds.), Cambridge Handbook of Project Behavior , Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2025: pp. 216–232.' ieee: 'Joana Geraldi, V. Stingl, and M. Schriewersmann, “At the Brink of a Project : Heuristics to Block Potential Project Disasters during the Early Project Opportunity Screening,” in Cambridge handbook of project behavior , L. A. Ika and J. K. Pinto, Eds. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2025, pp. 216–232. doi: 10.1017/9781009322737.' mla: 'Geraldi, Joana , et al. “At the Brink of a Project : Heuristics to Block Potential Project Disasters during the Early Project Opportunity Screening.” Cambridge Handbook of Project Behavior , edited by Lavagnon A. Ika and Jeffrey K. Pinto, Cambridge University Press, 2025, pp. 216–32, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009322737.' short: 'Joana Geraldi, V. Stingl, M. Schriewersmann, in: L.A. Ika, J.K. Pinto (Eds.), Cambridge Handbook of Project Behavior , Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2025, pp. 216–232.' ufg: 'Geraldi, Joana /Stingl, Verena/Schriewersmann, Maximilian: At the Brink of a Project : Heuristics to Block Potential Project Disasters during the Early Project Opportunity Screening, in: Ika, Lavagnon A./Pinto, Jeffrey K. (Hgg.): Cambridge handbook of project behavior , Cambridge 2025,  S. 216–232.' van: 'Geraldi Joana , Stingl V, Schriewersmann M. At the Brink of a Project : Heuristics to Block Potential Project Disasters during the Early Project Opportunity Screening. In: Ika LA, Pinto JK, editors. Cambridge handbook of project behavior . Cambridge: Cambridge University Press; 2025. p. 216–32.' date_created: 2026-03-03T10:55:34Z date_updated: 2026-03-03T12:03:38Z department: - _id: DEP1100 doi: 10.1017/9781009322737 editor: - first_name: Lavagnon A. full_name: Ika, Lavagnon A. last_name: Ika - first_name: Jeffrey K. full_name: Pinto, Jeffrey K. last_name: Pinto keyword: - heuristics - decision making - project behaviour - hiding hand - bid/no-bid decision language: - iso: eng page: 216 - 232 place: Cambridge publication: 'Cambridge handbook of project behavior ' publication_identifier: eisbn: - '9781009322737' isbn: - '9781009322768' - '9781009322775' publication_status: published publisher: Cambridge University Press status: public title: 'At the Brink of a Project : Heuristics to Block Potential Project Disasters during the Early Project Opportunity Screening' type: book_chapter user_id: '83781' year: '2025' ... --- _id: '11284' abstract: - lang: eng text: 'Introduction: Non-communicable diseases are the global disease burden of our time, with physical inactivity identified as one major risk factor. Green spaces are associated with increased physical activity of nearby residents. But there are still gaps in understanding which proximity and what characteristics of green spaces can trigger physical activity. This study aims to unveil these differences with a rigorous sensitivity analysis. Methods: We gathered data on self-reported health and physical activity from 1365 participants in selected neighbourhoods in Porto, Nantes, Sofia, and Hoje-Taastrup. Spatial data were retrieved from OpenStreetMap. We followed the PRIGSHARE guidelines to control for bias. Around the residential addresses, we generated seven different green space indicators for 15 distances (100-1500 m) using the AID-PRIGSHARE tool. We then analysed each of these 105 green space indicators together with physical activity and health in 105 adjusted structural equation models. Results: Green space accessibility and green space uses indicators showed a pattern of significant positive associations to physical activity and indirect to health at distances of 1100 m or less, with a peak at 600 m for most indicators. Greenness in close proximity (100 m) had significant positive effects on physical activity and indirect effects on health. Surrounding greenness showed positive direct effects on health at 500-1100 m and so do green corridors in 800 m network distance. In contrast, a high quantity of green space uses, and surrounding greenness measured in a larger radius (1100-1500 m) showed a negative relationship with physical activity and indirect health effects. Conclusions: Our results provide insight into how green space characteristics can influence health at different scales, with important implications for urban planners on how to integrate accessible green spaces into urban structures and public health decision-makers on the ability of green spaces to combat physical inactivity.' article_number: '117605' author: - first_name: Marcel full_name: Cardinali, Marcel id: '58462' last_name: Cardinali orcid: 0000-0002-8841-9345 - first_name: Mariëlle A. full_name: Beenackers, Mariëlle A. last_name: Beenackers - first_name: Arjan full_name: van Timmeren, Arjan last_name: van Timmeren - first_name: Uta full_name: Pottgiesser, Uta id: '27166' last_name: Pottgiesser orcid: 0000-0002-8594-3168 citation: ama: 'Cardinali M, Beenackers MA, van Timmeren A, Pottgiesser U. The relation between proximity to and characteristics of green spaces to physical activity and health: A multi-dimensional sensitivity analysis in four European cities. Environmental research : a multidisziplinary journal of environmental sciences, ecology, and public health . 2023;241. doi:10.1016/j.envres.2023.117605' apa: 'Cardinali, M., Beenackers, M. A., van Timmeren, A., & Pottgiesser, U. (2023). The relation between proximity to and characteristics of green spaces to physical activity and health: A multi-dimensional sensitivity analysis in four European cities. Environmental Research : A Multidisziplinary Journal of Environmental Sciences, Ecology, and Public Health , 241, Article 117605. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2023.117605' bjps: 'Cardinali M et al. (2023) The Relation between Proximity to and Characteristics of Green Spaces to Physical Activity and Health: A Multi-Dimensional Sensitivity Analysis in Four European Cities. Environmental research : a multidisziplinary journal of environmental sciences, ecology, and public health 241.' chicago: 'Cardinali, Marcel, Mariëlle A. Beenackers, Arjan van Timmeren, and Uta Pottgiesser. “The Relation between Proximity to and Characteristics of Green Spaces to Physical Activity and Health: A Multi-Dimensional Sensitivity Analysis in Four European Cities.” Environmental Research : A Multidisziplinary Journal of Environmental Sciences, Ecology, and Public Health 241 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2023.117605.' chicago-de: 'Cardinali, Marcel, Mariëlle A. Beenackers, Arjan van Timmeren und Uta Pottgiesser. 2023. The relation between proximity to and characteristics of green spaces to physical activity and health: A multi-dimensional sensitivity analysis in four European cities. Environmental research : a multidisziplinary journal of environmental sciences, ecology, and public health 241. doi:10.1016/j.envres.2023.117605, .' din1505-2-1: 'Cardinali, Marcel ; Beenackers, Mariëlle A. ; van Timmeren, Arjan ; Pottgiesser, Uta: The relation between proximity to and characteristics of green spaces to physical activity and health: A multi-dimensional sensitivity analysis in four European cities. In: Environmental research : a multidisziplinary journal of environmental sciences, ecology, and public health Bd. 241. San Diego, Calif., Elsevier BV (2023)' havard: 'M. Cardinali, M.A. Beenackers, A. van Timmeren, U. Pottgiesser, The relation between proximity to and characteristics of green spaces to physical activity and health: A multi-dimensional sensitivity analysis in four European cities, Environmental Research : A Multidisziplinary Journal of Environmental Sciences, Ecology, and Public Health . 241 (2023).' ieee: 'M. Cardinali, M. A. Beenackers, A. van Timmeren, and U. Pottgiesser, “The relation between proximity to and characteristics of green spaces to physical activity and health: A multi-dimensional sensitivity analysis in four European cities,” Environmental research : a multidisziplinary journal of environmental sciences, ecology, and public health , vol. 241, Art. no. 117605, 2023, doi: 10.1016/j.envres.2023.117605.' mla: 'Cardinali, Marcel, et al. “The Relation between Proximity to and Characteristics of Green Spaces to Physical Activity and Health: A Multi-Dimensional Sensitivity Analysis in Four European Cities.” Environmental Research : A Multidisziplinary Journal of Environmental Sciences, Ecology, and Public Health , vol. 241, 117605, 2023, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2023.117605.' short: 'M. Cardinali, M.A. Beenackers, A. van Timmeren, U. Pottgiesser, Environmental Research : A Multidisziplinary Journal of Environmental Sciences, Ecology, and Public Health 241 (2023).' ufg: 'Cardinali, Marcel u. a.: The relation between proximity to and characteristics of green spaces to physical activity and health: A multi-dimensional sensitivity analysis in four European cities, in: Environmental research : a multidisziplinary journal of environmental sciences, ecology, and public health 241 (2023).' van: 'Cardinali M, Beenackers MA, van Timmeren A, Pottgiesser U. The relation between proximity to and characteristics of green spaces to physical activity and health: A multi-dimensional sensitivity analysis in four European cities. Environmental research : a multidisziplinary journal of environmental sciences, ecology, and public health . 2023;241.' date_created: 2024-03-24T11:20:21Z date_updated: 2025-06-25T12:41:11Z department: - _id: DEP1000 - _id: DEP1055 doi: 10.1016/j.envres.2023.117605 external_id: isi: - '001121173400001' pmid: - '37956752' intvolume: ' 241' isi: '1' keyword: - Greenspace - Mediator - Behaviour - Sedentary lifestyle - Public health language: - iso: eng place: San Diego, Calif. pmid: '1' publication: 'Environmental research : a multidisziplinary journal of environmental sciences, ecology, and public health ' publication_identifier: eissn: - 1096-0953 issn: - 0013-9351 publication_status: published publisher: Elsevier BV status: public title: 'The relation between proximity to and characteristics of green spaces to physical activity and health: A multi-dimensional sensitivity analysis in four European cities' type: scientific_journal_article user_id: '83781' volume: 241 year: '2023' ... --- _id: '6248' abstract: - lang: eng text: ' The current carrying capacity, which is determined by the electrical-thermal behaviour, is one of the main features of an electrical contact system. The purpose of this study is to develop an analytical model which describes the electricalthermal behaviour of electrical contact systems. Established mechanical, electrical, thermal and contact physical relations are combined to design the analytical model. Differential equations with appropriate boundary conditions are used to solve the heating problem. The various parts of an electrical connector represent separate subsystems. The geometry, the material properties and the heat transfer coefficients for the contact system, the terminal clamp and the wire have been taken into account. These different subsystems have been connected to obtain the overall temperature distribution. In order to verify the analytical model, contact systems made of three copper alloys with different electrical and thermal properties are investigated experimentally at various current loads. It was shown that the analytical model can predict the temperature rise for simple geometry well. Using the analytical model several parameters can be easily changed. Moreover, the main influencing factors and their relationships can be identified directly on the equations. Therefore, the physical mathematical point of view of an analytical calculation can help Research Article British Journal of Applied Science & Technology, 4(1): 18-39, 2014 19 to understand the model structure of a contact system.' author: - first_name: Michael full_name: Blauth, Michael id: '49095' last_name: Blauth - first_name: Frank full_name: Berger, Frank last_name: Berger - first_name: Jian full_name: Song, Jian id: '5297' last_name: Song citation: ama: Blauth M, Berger F, Song J. Analytical and Experimental Investigation of the Electrical-Thermal Behaviour of Electrical Contact Systems. British Journal of Applied Science & Technology. 2014;4(1):18-39. doi:10.9734/BJAST/2014/5536 apa: Blauth, M., Berger, F., & Song, J. (2014). Analytical and Experimental Investigation of the Electrical-Thermal Behaviour of Electrical Contact Systems. British Journal of Applied Science & Technology, 4(1), 18–39. https://doi.org/10.9734/BJAST/2014/5536 bjps: Blauth M, Berger F and Song J (2014) Analytical and Experimental Investigation of the Electrical-Thermal Behaviour of Electrical Contact Systems. British Journal of Applied Science & Technology 4, 18–39. chicago: 'Blauth, Michael, Frank Berger, and Jian Song. “Analytical and Experimental Investigation of the Electrical-Thermal Behaviour of Electrical Contact Systems.” British Journal of Applied Science & Technology 4, no. 1 (2014): 18–39. https://doi.org/10.9734/BJAST/2014/5536 .' chicago-de: 'Blauth, Michael, Frank Berger und Jian Song. 2014. Analytical and Experimental Investigation of the Electrical-Thermal Behaviour of Electrical Contact Systems. British Journal of Applied Science & Technology 4, Nr. 1: 18–39. doi:10.9734/BJAST/2014/5536 , .' din1505-2-1: 'Blauth, Michael ; Berger, Frank ; Song, Jian: Analytical and Experimental Investigation of the Electrical-Thermal Behaviour of Electrical Contact Systems. In: British Journal of Applied Science & Technology Bd. 4, Sciencedomain International (2014), Nr. 1, S. 18–39' havard: M. Blauth, F. Berger, J. Song, Analytical and Experimental Investigation of the Electrical-Thermal Behaviour of Electrical Contact Systems, British Journal of Applied Science & Technology. 4 (2014) 18–39. ieee: 'M. Blauth, F. Berger, and J. Song, “Analytical and Experimental Investigation of the Electrical-Thermal Behaviour of Electrical Contact Systems,” British Journal of Applied Science & Technology, vol. 4, no. 1, pp. 18–39, 2014, doi: 10.9734/BJAST/2014/5536 .' mla: Blauth, Michael, et al. “Analytical and Experimental Investigation of the Electrical-Thermal Behaviour of Electrical Contact Systems.” British Journal of Applied Science & Technology, vol. 4, no. 1, 2014, pp. 18–39, https://doi.org/10.9734/BJAST/2014/5536 . short: M. Blauth, F. Berger, J. Song, British Journal of Applied Science & Technology 4 (2014) 18–39. ufg: 'Blauth, Michael/Berger, Frank/Song, Jian: Analytical and Experimental Investigation of the Electrical-Thermal Behaviour of Electrical Contact Systems, in: British Journal of Applied Science & Technology 4 (2014), H. 1,  S. 18–39.' van: Blauth M, Berger F, Song J. Analytical and Experimental Investigation of the Electrical-Thermal Behaviour of Electrical Contact Systems. British Journal of Applied Science & Technology. 2014;4(1):18–39. date_created: 2021-09-15T07:59:41Z date_updated: 2026-03-04T14:37:50Z department: - _id: DEP6012 doi: '10.9734/BJAST/2014/5536 ' intvolume: ' 4' issue: '1' keyword: - Analytical calculation - electrical contacts - contact physics - electric conductivity - heating - thermal behaviour language: - iso: eng page: 18 - 39 publication: British Journal of Applied Science & Technology publication_identifier: issn: - 2231-0843 publication_status: published publisher: Sciencedomain International status: public title: Analytical and Experimental Investigation of the Electrical-Thermal Behaviour of Electrical Contact Systems type: journal_article user_id: '83781' volume: 4 year: '2014' ...