---
_id: '12207'
abstract:
- lang: eng
  text: Lakes represent a vital source of freshwater, accounting for 87% of the Earth’s
    accessible surface freshwater resources and providing a range of ecosystem services,
    including water for human consumption. As climate change continues to unfold,
    understanding the potential evaporative water losses from lakes becomes crucial
    for effective water management strategies. Here we investigate the impacts of
    climate change on the evaporation rates of 23 European lakes and reservoirs of
    varying size during the warm season (July–September). To assess the evaporation
    trends, we employ a 12-member ensemble of model projections, utilizing three one-dimensional
    process-based lake models. These lake models were driven by bias-corrected climate
    simulations from four General Circulation Models (GCMs), considering both a historical
    (1970–2005) and future (2006–2099) period. Our findings reveal a consistent projection
    of increased warm-season evaporation across all lakes this century, though the
    magnitude varies depending on specific factors. By the end of this century (2070–2099),
    we estimate a 21%, 30% and 42% average increase in evaporation rates in the studied
    European lakes under RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 2.6, 6.0 and 8.5,
    respectively. Moreover, future projections of the relationship between precipitation
    (P) and evaporation (E) in the studied lakes, suggest that P-E will decrease this
    century, likely leading to a deficit in the availability of surface water. The
    projected increases in evaporation rates underscore the significance of adapting
    strategic management approaches for European lakes to cope with the far-reaching
    consequences of climate change.
article_number: '173'
author:
- first_name: Sofia
  full_name: La Fuente, Sofia
  last_name: La Fuente
- first_name: Eleanor
  full_name: Jennings, Eleanor
  last_name: Jennings
- first_name: John D.
  full_name: Lenters, John D.
  last_name: Lenters
- first_name: Piet
  full_name: Verburg, Piet
  last_name: Verburg
- first_name: Georgiy
  full_name: Kirillin, Georgiy
  last_name: Kirillin
- first_name: Tom
  full_name: Shatwell, Tom
  id: '86424'
  last_name: Shatwell
  orcid: 0000-0002-4520-7916
- first_name: Raoul-Marie
  full_name: Couture, Raoul-Marie
  last_name: Couture
- first_name: Marianne
  full_name: Côté, Marianne
  last_name: Côté
- first_name: C. Love Råman
  full_name: Vinnå, C. Love Råman
  last_name: Vinnå
- first_name: R. Iestyn
  full_name: Woolway, R. Iestyn
  last_name: Woolway
citation:
  ama: La Fuente S, Jennings E, Lenters JD, et al. Increasing warm-season evaporation
    rates across European lakes under climate change. <i>Climatic Change</i>. 2024;177(12).
    doi:<a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03830-2">10.1007/s10584-024-03830-2</a>
  apa: La Fuente, S., Jennings, E., Lenters, J. D., Verburg, P., Kirillin, G., Shatwell,
    T., Couture, R.-M., Côté, M., Vinnå, C. L. R., &#38; Woolway, R. I. (2024). Increasing
    warm-season evaporation rates across European lakes under climate change. <i>Climatic
    Change</i>, <i>177</i>(12), Article 173. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03830-2">https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03830-2</a>
  bjps: <b>La Fuente S <i>et al.</i></b> (2024) Increasing Warm-Season Evaporation
    Rates across European Lakes under Climate Change. <i>Climatic Change</i> <b>177</b>.
  chicago: La Fuente, Sofia, Eleanor Jennings, John D. Lenters, Piet Verburg, Georgiy
    Kirillin, Tom Shatwell, Raoul-Marie Couture, Marianne Côté, C. Love Råman Vinnå,
    and R. Iestyn Woolway. “Increasing Warm-Season Evaporation Rates across European
    Lakes under Climate Change.” <i>Climatic Change</i> 177, no. 12 (2024). <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03830-2">https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03830-2</a>.
  chicago-de: La Fuente, Sofia, Eleanor Jennings, John D. Lenters, Piet Verburg, Georgiy
    Kirillin, Tom Shatwell, Raoul-Marie Couture, Marianne Côté, C. Love Råman Vinnå
    und R. Iestyn Woolway. 2024. Increasing warm-season evaporation rates across European
    lakes under climate change. <i>Climatic Change</i> 177, Nr. 12. doi:<a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03830-2">10.1007/s10584-024-03830-2</a>,
    .
  din1505-2-1: '<span style="font-variant:small-caps;"><span style="font-variant:small-caps;">La
    Fuente, Sofia</span> ; <span style="font-variant:small-caps;">Jennings, Eleanor</span>
    ; <span style="font-variant:small-caps;">Lenters, John D.</span> ; <span style="font-variant:small-caps;">Verburg,
    Piet</span> ; <span style="font-variant:small-caps;">Kirillin, Georgiy</span>
    ; <span style="font-variant:small-caps;">Shatwell, Tom</span> ; <span style="font-variant:small-caps;">Couture,
    Raoul-Marie</span> ; <span style="font-variant:small-caps;">Côté, Marianne</span>
    ; u. a.</span>: Increasing warm-season evaporation rates across European lakes
    under climate change. In: <i>Climatic Change</i> Bd. 177. Dordrecht [u.a.] , Springer
    (2024), Nr. 12'
  havard: S. La Fuente, E. Jennings, J.D. Lenters, P. Verburg, G. Kirillin, T. Shatwell,
    R.-M. Couture, M. Côté, C.L.R. Vinnå, R.I. Woolway, Increasing warm-season evaporation
    rates across European lakes under climate change, Climatic Change. 177 (2024).
  ieee: 'S. La Fuente <i>et al.</i>, “Increasing warm-season evaporation rates across
    European lakes under climate change,” <i>Climatic Change</i>, vol. 177, no. 12,
    Art. no. 173, 2024, doi: <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03830-2">10.1007/s10584-024-03830-2</a>.'
  mla: La Fuente, Sofia, et al. “Increasing Warm-Season Evaporation Rates across European
    Lakes under Climate Change.” <i>Climatic Change</i>, vol. 177, no. 12, 173, 2024,
    <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03830-2">https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03830-2</a>.
  short: S. La Fuente, E. Jennings, J.D. Lenters, P. Verburg, G. Kirillin, T. Shatwell,
    R.-M. Couture, M. Côté, C.L.R. Vinnå, R.I. Woolway, Climatic Change 177 (2024).
  ufg: '<b>La Fuente, Sofia u. a.</b>: Increasing warm-season evaporation rates across
    European lakes under climate change, in: <i>Climatic Change</i> 177 (2024), H.
    12.'
  van: La Fuente S, Jennings E, Lenters JD, Verburg P, Kirillin G, Shatwell T, et
    al. Increasing warm-season evaporation rates across European lakes under climate
    change. Climatic Change. 2024;177(12).
date_created: 2024-12-08T18:51:13Z
date_updated: 2025-06-25T13:08:30Z
department:
- _id: DEP8022
doi: 10.1007/s10584-024-03830-2
external_id:
  isi:
  - '001365861900001'
intvolume: '       177'
isi: '1'
issue: '12'
keyword:
- Multi-model
- Water availability
- Europe
- Ensemble
- Lake evaporation
- Latent heat flux
language:
- iso: eng
main_file_link:
- open_access: '1'
  url: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03830-2
oa: '1'
place: 'Dordrecht [u.a.] '
publication: Climatic Change
publication_identifier:
  eissn:
  - 1573-1480
  issn:
  - 0165-0009
publication_status: published
publisher: Springer
quality_controlled: '1'
status: public
title: Increasing warm-season evaporation rates across European lakes under climate
  change
type: scientific_journal_article
user_id: '83781'
volume: 177
year: '2024'
...
---
_id: '12221'
abstract:
- lang: eng
  text: 'Lake evaporation plays an important role in the water budget of lakes. Predicting
    lake evaporation responses to climate change is thus of paramount importance for
    the planning of mitigation and adaption strategies. However, most studies that
    have simulated climate change impacts on lake evaporation have typically utilised
    a single mechanistic model. Whilst such studies have merit, projected changes
    in lake evaporation from any single lake model can be considered uncertain. To
    better understand evaporation responses to climate change, a multi-model approach
    (i.e., where a range of projections are considered), is desirable. In this study,
    we present such multi-model analysis, where five lake models forced by four different
    climate model projections are used to simulate historic and future change (1901–2099)
    in lake evaporation. Our investigation, which focuses on sub-tropical Lake Kinneret
    (Israel), suggested considerable differences in simulated evaporation rates among
    the models, with the annual average evaporation rates varying between 1232 mm
    year−1 and 2608 mm year−1 during the historic period (1901–2005). We explored
    these differences by comparing the models with reference evaporation rates estimated
    using in-situ data (2000–2005) and a bulk aerodynamic algorithm. We found that
    the model ensemble generally captured the intra-annual variability in reference
    evaporation rates, and compared well at seasonal timescales (RMSEc = 0.19, R =
    0.92). Using the model ensemble, we then projected future change in evaporation
    rates under three different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios:
    RCP 2.6, 6.0 and 8.5. Our projections indicated that, by the end of the 21st century
    (2070–2099), annual average evaporation rates would increase in Lake Kinneret
    by 9–22 % under RCPs 2.6–8.5. When compared with projected regional declines in
    precipitation, our projections suggested that the water balance of Lake Kinneret
    could experience a deficit of 14–40 % this century. We anticipate this substantial
    projected deficit combined with a considerable growth in population expected for
    this region could have considerable negative impacts on water availability and
    would consequently increase regional water stress.'
article_number: '128729'
author:
- first_name: Sofia
  full_name: La Fuente, Sofia
  last_name: La Fuente
- first_name: Eleanor
  full_name: Jennings, Eleanor
  last_name: Jennings
- first_name: Gideon
  full_name: Gal, Gideon
  last_name: Gal
- first_name: Georgiy
  full_name: Kirillin, Georgiy
  last_name: Kirillin
- first_name: Tom
  full_name: Shatwell, Tom
  id: '86424'
  last_name: Shatwell
  orcid: 0000-0002-4520-7916
- first_name: Robert
  full_name: Ladwig, Robert
  last_name: Ladwig
- first_name: Tadhg
  full_name: Moore, Tadhg
  last_name: Moore
- first_name: Raoul-Marie
  full_name: Couture, Raoul-Marie
  last_name: Couture
- first_name: Marianne
  full_name: Côté, Marianne
  last_name: Côté
- first_name: C.
  full_name: Love Råman Vinnå, C.
  last_name: Love Råman Vinnå
- first_name: R.
  full_name: Iestyn Woolway, R.
  last_name: Iestyn Woolway
citation:
  ama: La Fuente S, Jennings E, Gal G, et al. Multi-model projections of future evaporation
    in a sub-tropical lake. <i>Journal of Hydrology</i>. 2022;615. doi:<a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.128729">10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.128729</a>
  apa: La Fuente, S., Jennings, E., Gal, G., Kirillin, G., Shatwell, T., Ladwig, R.,
    Moore, T., Couture, R.-M., Côté, M., Love Råman Vinnå, C., &#38; Iestyn Woolway,
    R. (2022). Multi-model projections of future evaporation in a sub-tropical lake.
    <i>Journal of Hydrology</i>, <i>615</i>, Article 128729. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.128729">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.128729</a>
  bjps: <b>La Fuente S <i>et al.</i></b> (2022) Multi-Model Projections of Future
    Evaporation in a Sub-Tropical Lake. <i>Journal of Hydrology</i> <b>615</b>.
  chicago: La Fuente, Sofia, Eleanor Jennings, Gideon Gal, Georgiy Kirillin, Tom Shatwell,
    Robert Ladwig, Tadhg Moore, et al. “Multi-Model Projections of Future Evaporation
    in a Sub-Tropical Lake.” <i>Journal of Hydrology</i> 615 (2022). <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.128729">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.128729</a>.
  chicago-de: La Fuente, Sofia, Eleanor Jennings, Gideon Gal, Georgiy Kirillin, Tom
    Shatwell, Robert Ladwig, Tadhg Moore, u. a. 2022. Multi-model projections of future
    evaporation in a sub-tropical lake. <i>Journal of Hydrology</i> 615. doi:<a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.128729">10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.128729</a>,
    .
  din1505-2-1: '<span style="font-variant:small-caps;"><span style="font-variant:small-caps;">La
    Fuente, Sofia</span> ; <span style="font-variant:small-caps;">Jennings, Eleanor</span>
    ; <span style="font-variant:small-caps;">Gal, Gideon</span> ; <span style="font-variant:small-caps;">Kirillin,
    Georgiy</span> ; <span style="font-variant:small-caps;">Shatwell, Tom</span> ;
    <span style="font-variant:small-caps;">Ladwig, Robert</span> ; <span style="font-variant:small-caps;">Moore,
    Tadhg</span> ; <span style="font-variant:small-caps;">Couture, Raoul-Marie</span>
    ; u. a.</span>: Multi-model projections of future evaporation in a sub-tropical
    lake. In: <i>Journal of Hydrology</i> Bd. 615. Amsterdam, Elsevier BV (2022)'
  havard: S. La Fuente, E. Jennings, G. Gal, G. Kirillin, T. Shatwell, R. Ladwig,
    T. Moore, R.-M. Couture, M. Côté, C. Love Råman Vinnå, R. Iestyn Woolway, Multi-model
    projections of future evaporation in a sub-tropical lake, Journal of Hydrology.
    615 (2022).
  ieee: 'S. La Fuente <i>et al.</i>, “Multi-model projections of future evaporation
    in a sub-tropical lake,” <i>Journal of Hydrology</i>, vol. 615, Art. no. 128729,
    2022, doi: <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.128729">10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.128729</a>.'
  mla: La Fuente, Sofia, et al. “Multi-Model Projections of Future Evaporation in
    a Sub-Tropical Lake.” <i>Journal of Hydrology</i>, vol. 615, 128729, 2022, <a
    href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.128729">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.128729</a>.
  short: S. La Fuente, E. Jennings, G. Gal, G. Kirillin, T. Shatwell, R. Ladwig, T.
    Moore, R.-M. Couture, M. Côté, C. Love Råman Vinnå, R. Iestyn Woolway, Journal
    of Hydrology 615 (2022).
  ufg: '<b>La Fuente, Sofia u. a.</b>: Multi-model projections of future evaporation
    in a sub-tropical lake, in: <i>Journal of Hydrology</i> 615 (2022).'
  van: La Fuente S, Jennings E, Gal G, Kirillin G, Shatwell T, Ladwig R, et al. Multi-model
    projections of future evaporation in a sub-tropical lake. Journal of Hydrology.
    2022;615.
date_created: 2024-12-08T19:49:42Z
date_updated: 2024-12-11T13:18:16Z
department:
- _id: DEP8022
doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.128729
extern: '1'
intvolume: '       615'
keyword:
- Ensemble modelling
- Lake evaporation
- Climate change
- Lake Kinneret
language:
- iso: eng
place: Amsterdam
publication: Journal of Hydrology
publication_identifier:
  eissn:
  - 1879-2707
  issn:
  - 0022-1694
publication_status: published
publisher: Elsevier BV
quality_controlled: '1'
status: public
title: Multi-model projections of future evaporation in a sub-tropical lake
type: scientific_journal_article
user_id: '83781'
volume: 615
year: '2022'
...