---
_id: '12855'
abstract:
- lang: eng
  text: Global warming is shifting the thermal dynamics of lakes, with resulting climatic
    variability heavily affecting their mixing dynamics. We present a dual ensemble
    workflow coupling climate models with lake models. We used a large set of simulations
    across multiple domains, multi‐scenario, and multi GCM‐ RCM combinations from
    CORDEX data. We forced a set of multiple hydrodynamic lake models by these multiple
    climate simulations to explore climate change impacts on lakes. We also quantified
    the contributions from the different models to the overall uncertainty. We employed
    this workflow to investigate the effects of climate change on Lake Sevan (Armenia).
    We predicted for the end of the 21st century, under RCP 8.5, a sharp increase
    in surface temperature  and substantial bottom warming , longer stratification
    periods (+55 days) and disappearance of ice cover leading to a shift in mixing
    regime. Increased insufficient cooling during warmer winters points to the vulnerability
    of Lake Sevan to climate change. Our workflow leverages the strengths of multiple
    models at several levels of the model chain to provide a more robust projection
    and at the same time a better uncertainty estimate that accounts for the contributions
    of the different model levels to overall uncertainty. Although for specific variables,
    for example, summer bottom temperature, single lake models may perform better,
    the full ensemble provides a robust estimate of thermal dynamics that has a high
    transferability so that our workflow can be a blueprint for climate impact studies
    in other systems.
author:
- first_name: Muhammed
  full_name: Shikhani, Muhammed
  last_name: Shikhani
- first_name: Johannes
  full_name: Feldbauer, Johannes
  last_name: Feldbauer
- first_name: Robert
  full_name: Ladwig, Robert
  last_name: Ladwig
- first_name: Daniel
  full_name: Mercado‐Bettín, Daniel
  last_name: Mercado‐Bettín
- first_name: Tadhg N.
  full_name: Moore, Tadhg N.
  last_name: Moore
- first_name: Artur
  full_name: Gevorgyan, Artur
  last_name: Gevorgyan
- first_name: Amalya
  full_name: Misakyan, Amalya
  last_name: Misakyan
- first_name: Chenxi
  full_name: Mi, Chenxi
  last_name: Mi
- first_name: Martin
  full_name: Schultze, Martin
  last_name: Schultze
- first_name: Bertram
  full_name: Boehrer, Bertram
  last_name: Boehrer
- first_name: Tom
  full_name: Shatwell, Tom
  id: '86424'
  last_name: Shatwell
  orcid: 0000-0002-4520-7916
- first_name: Klemens
  full_name: Barfus, Klemens
  last_name: Barfus
- first_name: Karsten
  full_name: Rinke, Karsten
  last_name: Rinke
citation:
  ama: 'Shikhani M, Feldbauer J, Ladwig R, et al. Combining a Multi‐Lake Model Ensemble
    and a Multi‐Domain CORDEX Climate Data Ensemble for Assessing Climate Change Impacts
    on Lake Sevan. <i>Water resources research : an AGU journal</i>. 2024;60(11).
    doi:<a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2023wr036511">10.1029/2023wr036511</a>'
  apa: 'Shikhani, M., Feldbauer, J., Ladwig, R., Mercado‐Bettín, D., Moore, T. N.,
    Gevorgyan, A., Misakyan, A., Mi, C., Schultze, M., Boehrer, B., Shatwell, T.,
    Barfus, K., &#38; Rinke, K. (2024). Combining a Multi‐Lake Model Ensemble and
    a Multi‐Domain CORDEX Climate Data Ensemble for Assessing Climate Change Impacts
    on Lake Sevan. <i>Water Resources Research : An AGU Journal</i>, <i>60</i>(11).
    <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2023wr036511">https://doi.org/10.1029/2023wr036511</a>'
  bjps: '<b>Shikhani M <i>et al.</i></b> (2024) Combining a Multi‐Lake Model Ensemble
    and a Multi‐Domain CORDEX Climate Data Ensemble for Assessing Climate Change Impacts
    on Lake Sevan. <i>Water resources research : an AGU journal</i> <b>60</b>.'
  chicago: 'Shikhani, Muhammed, Johannes Feldbauer, Robert Ladwig, Daniel Mercado‐Bettín,
    Tadhg N. Moore, Artur Gevorgyan, Amalya Misakyan, et al. “Combining a Multi‐Lake
    Model Ensemble and a Multi‐Domain CORDEX Climate Data Ensemble for Assessing Climate
    Change Impacts on Lake Sevan.” <i>Water Resources Research : An AGU Journal</i>
    60, no. 11 (2024). <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2023wr036511">https://doi.org/10.1029/2023wr036511</a>.'
  chicago-de: 'Shikhani, Muhammed, Johannes Feldbauer, Robert Ladwig, Daniel Mercado‐Bettín,
    Tadhg N. Moore, Artur Gevorgyan, Amalya Misakyan, u. a. 2024. Combining a Multi‐Lake
    Model Ensemble and a Multi‐Domain CORDEX Climate Data Ensemble for Assessing Climate
    Change Impacts on Lake Sevan. <i>Water resources research : an AGU journal</i>
    60, Nr. 11. doi:<a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2023wr036511">10.1029/2023wr036511</a>,
    .'
  din1505-2-1: '<span style="font-variant:small-caps;"><span style="font-variant:small-caps;">Shikhani,
    Muhammed</span> ; <span style="font-variant:small-caps;">Feldbauer, Johannes</span>
    ; <span style="font-variant:small-caps;">Ladwig, Robert</span> ; <span style="font-variant:small-caps;">Mercado‐Bettín,
    Daniel</span> ; <span style="font-variant:small-caps;">Moore, Tadhg N.</span>
    ; <span style="font-variant:small-caps;">Gevorgyan, Artur</span> ; <span style="font-variant:small-caps;">Misakyan,
    Amalya</span> ; <span style="font-variant:small-caps;">Mi, Chenxi</span> ; u. a.</span>:
    Combining a Multi‐Lake Model Ensemble and a Multi‐Domain CORDEX Climate Data Ensemble
    for Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Lake Sevan. In: <i>Water resources research :
    an AGU journal</i> Bd. 60. New York, NY, American Geophysical Union (AGU) (2024),
    Nr. 11'
  havard: 'M. Shikhani, J. Feldbauer, R. Ladwig, D. Mercado‐Bettín, T.N. Moore, A.
    Gevorgyan, A. Misakyan, C. Mi, M. Schultze, B. Boehrer, T. Shatwell, K. Barfus,
    K. Rinke, Combining a Multi‐Lake Model Ensemble and a Multi‐Domain CORDEX Climate
    Data Ensemble for Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Lake Sevan, Water Resources
    Research : An AGU Journal. 60 (2024).'
  ieee: 'M. Shikhani <i>et al.</i>, “Combining a Multi‐Lake Model Ensemble and a Multi‐Domain
    CORDEX Climate Data Ensemble for Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Lake Sevan,”
    <i>Water resources research : an AGU journal</i>, vol. 60, no. 11, 2024, doi:
    <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2023wr036511">10.1029/2023wr036511</a>.'
  mla: 'Shikhani, Muhammed, et al. “Combining a Multi‐Lake Model Ensemble and a Multi‐Domain
    CORDEX Climate Data Ensemble for Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Lake Sevan.”
    <i>Water Resources Research : An AGU Journal</i>, vol. 60, no. 11, 2024, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2023wr036511">https://doi.org/10.1029/2023wr036511</a>.'
  short: 'M. Shikhani, J. Feldbauer, R. Ladwig, D. Mercado‐Bettín, T.N. Moore, A.
    Gevorgyan, A. Misakyan, C. Mi, M. Schultze, B. Boehrer, T. Shatwell, K. Barfus,
    K. Rinke, Water Resources Research : An AGU Journal 60 (2024).'
  ufg: '<b>Shikhani, Muhammed u. a.</b>: Combining a Multi‐Lake Model Ensemble and
    a Multi‐Domain CORDEX Climate Data Ensemble for Assessing Climate Change Impacts
    on Lake Sevan, in: <i>Water resources research : an AGU journal</i> 60 (2024),
    H. 11.'
  van: 'Shikhani M, Feldbauer J, Ladwig R, Mercado‐Bettín D, Moore TN, Gevorgyan A,
    et al. Combining a Multi‐Lake Model Ensemble and a Multi‐Domain CORDEX Climate
    Data Ensemble for Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Lake Sevan. Water resources
    research : an AGU journal. 2024;60(11).'
date_created: 2025-04-24T06:41:06Z
date_updated: 2025-06-25T13:09:00Z
department:
- _id: DEP8000
- _id: DEP8022
doi: 10.1029/2023wr036511
external_id:
  isi:
  - '001370328800001'
  pmid:
  - '39582854'
intvolume: '        60'
isi: '1'
issue: '11'
keyword:
- multi model ensemble (MME)
- CORDEX
- LakeEnsemblR
- lake modeling
- climate change impacts
- variance decomposition
language:
- iso: eng
place: New York, NY
pmid: '1'
publication: 'Water resources research : an AGU journal'
publication_identifier:
  eissn:
  - 1944-7973
  issn:
  - 0043-1397
publication_status: published
publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
quality_controlled: '1'
status: public
title: Combining a Multi‐Lake Model Ensemble and a Multi‐Domain CORDEX Climate Data
  Ensemble for Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Lake Sevan
type: scientific_journal_article
user_id: '83781'
volume: 60
year: '2024'
...
---
_id: '12231'
abstract:
- lang: eng
  text: In temperate lakes, it is generally assumed that light rather than temperature
    constrains phytoplankton growth in winter. Rapid winter warming and increasing
    observations of winter blooms warrant more investigation of these controls. We
    investigated the mechanisms regulating a massive winter diatom bloom in a temperate
    lake. High frequency data and process-based lake modeling demonstrated that phytoplankton
    growth in winter was dually controlled by light and temperature, rather than by
    light alone. Water temperature played a further indirect role in initiating the
    bloom through ice-thaw, which increased light exposure. The bloom was ultimately
    terminated by silicon limitation and sedimentation. These mechanisms differ from
    those typically responsible for spring diatom blooms and contributed to the high
    peak biomass. Our findings show that phytoplankton growth in winter is more sensitive
    to temperature, and consequently to climate change, than previously assumed. This
    has implications for nutrient cycling and seasonal succession of lake phytoplankton
    communities. The present study exemplifies the strength in integrating data analysis
    with different temporal resolutions and lake modeling. The new lake ecological
    model serves as an effective tool in analyzing and predicting winter phytoplankton
    dynamics for temperate lakes.
article_number: '116681'
author:
- first_name: Xiangzhen
  full_name: Kong, Xiangzhen
  last_name: Kong
- first_name: Michael
  full_name: Seewald, Michael
  last_name: Seewald
- first_name: Tallent
  full_name: Dadi, Tallent
  last_name: Dadi
- first_name: Kurt
  full_name: Friese, Kurt
  last_name: Friese
- first_name: Chenxi
  full_name: Mi, Chenxi
  last_name: Mi
- first_name: Bertram
  full_name: Boehrer, Bertram
  last_name: Boehrer
- first_name: Martin
  full_name: Schultze, Martin
  last_name: Schultze
- first_name: Karsten
  full_name: Rinke, Karsten
  last_name: Rinke
- first_name: Tom
  full_name: Shatwell, Tom
  id: '86424'
  last_name: Shatwell
  orcid: 0000-0002-4520-7916
citation:
  ama: 'Kong X, Seewald M, Dadi T, et al. Unravelling winter diatom blooms in temperate
    lakes using high frequency data and ecological modeling. <i>Water research : a
    journal of the International Water Association</i>. 2020;190. doi:<a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.watres.2020.116681">10.1016/j.watres.2020.116681</a>'
  apa: 'Kong, X., Seewald, M., Dadi, T., Friese, K., Mi, C., Boehrer, B., Schultze,
    M., Rinke, K., &#38; Shatwell, T. (2020). Unravelling winter diatom blooms in
    temperate lakes using high frequency data and ecological modeling. <i>Water Research :
    A Journal of the International Water Association</i>, <i>190</i>, Article 116681.
    <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.watres.2020.116681">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.watres.2020.116681</a>'
  bjps: '<b>Kong X <i>et al.</i></b> (2020) Unravelling Winter Diatom Blooms in Temperate
    Lakes Using High Frequency Data and Ecological Modeling. <i>Water research : a
    journal of the International Water Association</i> <b>190</b>.'
  chicago: 'Kong, Xiangzhen, Michael Seewald, Tallent Dadi, Kurt Friese, Chenxi Mi,
    Bertram Boehrer, Martin Schultze, Karsten Rinke, and Tom Shatwell. “Unravelling
    Winter Diatom Blooms in Temperate Lakes Using High Frequency Data and Ecological
    Modeling.” <i>Water Research : A Journal of the International Water Association</i>
    190 (2020). <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.watres.2020.116681">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.watres.2020.116681</a>.'
  chicago-de: 'Kong, Xiangzhen, Michael Seewald, Tallent Dadi, Kurt Friese, Chenxi
    Mi, Bertram Boehrer, Martin Schultze, Karsten Rinke und Tom Shatwell. 2020. Unravelling
    winter diatom blooms in temperate lakes using high frequency data and ecological
    modeling. <i>Water research : a journal of the International Water Association</i>
    190. doi:<a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.watres.2020.116681">10.1016/j.watres.2020.116681</a>,
    .'
  din1505-2-1: '<span style="font-variant:small-caps;"><span style="font-variant:small-caps;">Kong,
    Xiangzhen</span> ; <span style="font-variant:small-caps;">Seewald, Michael</span>
    ; <span style="font-variant:small-caps;">Dadi, Tallent</span> ; <span style="font-variant:small-caps;">Friese,
    Kurt</span> ; <span style="font-variant:small-caps;">Mi, Chenxi</span> ; <span
    style="font-variant:small-caps;">Boehrer, Bertram</span> ; <span style="font-variant:small-caps;">Schultze,
    Martin</span> ; <span style="font-variant:small-caps;">Rinke, Karsten</span> ;
    u. a.</span>: Unravelling winter diatom blooms in temperate lakes using high frequency
    data and ecological modeling. In: <i>Water research : a journal of the International
    Water Association</i> Bd. 190. Amsterdam, Elsevier BV (2020)'
  havard: 'X. Kong, M. Seewald, T. Dadi, K. Friese, C. Mi, B. Boehrer, M. Schultze,
    K. Rinke, T. Shatwell, Unravelling winter diatom blooms in temperate lakes using
    high frequency data and ecological modeling, Water Research : A Journal of the
    International Water Association. 190 (2020).'
  ieee: 'X. Kong <i>et al.</i>, “Unravelling winter diatom blooms in temperate lakes
    using high frequency data and ecological modeling,” <i>Water research : a journal
    of the International Water Association</i>, vol. 190, Art. no. 116681, 2020, doi:
    <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.watres.2020.116681">10.1016/j.watres.2020.116681</a>.'
  mla: 'Kong, Xiangzhen, et al. “Unravelling Winter Diatom Blooms in Temperate Lakes
    Using High Frequency Data and Ecological Modeling.” <i>Water Research : A Journal
    of the International Water Association</i>, vol. 190, 116681, 2020, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.watres.2020.116681">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.watres.2020.116681</a>.'
  short: 'X. Kong, M. Seewald, T. Dadi, K. Friese, C. Mi, B. Boehrer, M. Schultze,
    K. Rinke, T. Shatwell, Water Research : A Journal of the International Water Association
    190 (2020).'
  ufg: '<b>Kong, Xiangzhen u. a.</b>: Unravelling winter diatom blooms in temperate
    lakes using high frequency data and ecological modeling, in: <i>Water research :
    a journal of the International Water Association</i> 190 (2020).'
  van: 'Kong X, Seewald M, Dadi T, Friese K, Mi C, Boehrer B, et al. Unravelling winter
    diatom blooms in temperate lakes using high frequency data and ecological modeling.
    Water research : a journal of the International Water Association. 2020;190.'
date_created: 2024-12-08T20:19:54Z
date_updated: 2024-12-09T11:24:12Z
department:
- _id: DEP8022
doi: 10.1016/j.watres.2020.116681
extern: '1'
intvolume: '       190'
keyword:
- Winter diatom bloom
- High frequency monitoring
- Lake modeling
- Light limitation
- Temperature
language:
- iso: eng
main_file_link:
- url: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.watres.2020.116681
place: Amsterdam
publication: 'Water research : a journal of the International Water Association'
publication_identifier:
  eissn:
  - 1879-2448
  issn:
  - 0043-1354
publication_status: published
publisher: Elsevier BV
quality_controlled: '1'
status: public
title: Unravelling winter diatom blooms in temperate lakes using high frequency data
  and ecological modeling
type: scientific_journal_article
user_id: '83781'
volume: 190
year: '2020'
...
---
_id: '12242'
abstract:
- lang: eng
  text: 'Hutchinson and Löffler''s (1956) classification of lakes based on the seasonal
    thermal mixing regime has become a cornerstone of any analysis of lakes as elements
    of the earth surface. Until now however the lake classification has lacked a physically
    sound quantitative criterion distinguishing between two fundamental lake types:
    thermally stratified during a large portion of the year (mono- and dimictic) and
    predominantly mixed to the bottom (polymictic). Using the mechanistic balance
    between potential and kinetic energy we review the different formulations of the
    Richardson number to derive a generalized scaling for seasonal stratification
    in a closed lake basin. The scaling parameter is the critical mean basin depth,
    Hcrit, that delineates lakes that mix regularly from those that stratify seasonally
    based on lake water transparency, lake length, and an annual mean estimate for
    the Monin-Obukhov length. We validate the scaling on available data of lakes worldwide
    using logistic regression. The scaling criterion consistently described the mixing
    regime significantly better than either the conventional unbounded basin scaling
    or a simple depth threshold. Thus, the generalized scaling is universal for freshwater
    lakes and allows the seasonal mixing regime to be estimated without numerically
    solving the heat transport equations.'
author:
- first_name: G.
  full_name: Kirillin, G.
  last_name: Kirillin
- first_name: Tom
  full_name: Shatwell, Tom
  id: '86424'
  last_name: Shatwell
  orcid: 0000-0002-4520-7916
citation:
  ama: Kirillin G, Shatwell T. Generalized scaling of seasonal thermal stratification
    in lakes. <i>Earth-Science Reviews</i>. 2016;161:179-190. doi:<a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2016.08.008">10.1016/j.earscirev.2016.08.008</a>
  apa: Kirillin, G., &#38; Shatwell, T. (2016). Generalized scaling of seasonal thermal
    stratification in lakes. <i>Earth-Science Reviews</i>, <i>161</i>, 179–190. <a
    href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2016.08.008">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2016.08.008</a>
  bjps: <b>Kirillin G and Shatwell T</b> (2016) Generalized Scaling of Seasonal Thermal
    Stratification in Lakes. <i>Earth-Science Reviews</i> <b>161</b>, 179–190.
  chicago: 'Kirillin, G., and Tom Shatwell. “Generalized Scaling of Seasonal Thermal
    Stratification in Lakes.” <i>Earth-Science Reviews</i> 161 (2016): 179–90. <a
    href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2016.08.008">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2016.08.008</a>.'
  chicago-de: 'Kirillin, G. und Tom Shatwell. 2016. Generalized scaling of seasonal
    thermal stratification in lakes. <i>Earth-Science Reviews</i> 161: 179–190. doi:<a
    href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2016.08.008">10.1016/j.earscirev.2016.08.008</a>,
    .'
  din1505-2-1: '<span style="font-variant:small-caps;">Kirillin, G.</span> ; <span
    style="font-variant:small-caps;">Shatwell, Tom</span>: Generalized scaling of
    seasonal thermal stratification in lakes. In: <i>Earth-Science Reviews</i> Bd.
    161, Elsevier BV (2016), S. 179–190'
  havard: G. Kirillin, T. Shatwell, Generalized scaling of seasonal thermal stratification
    in lakes, Earth-Science Reviews. 161 (2016) 179–190.
  ieee: 'G. Kirillin and T. Shatwell, “Generalized scaling of seasonal thermal stratification
    in lakes,” <i>Earth-Science Reviews</i>, vol. 161, pp. 179–190, 2016, doi: <a
    href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2016.08.008">10.1016/j.earscirev.2016.08.008</a>.'
  mla: Kirillin, G., and Tom Shatwell. “Generalized Scaling of Seasonal Thermal Stratification
    in Lakes.” <i>Earth-Science Reviews</i>, vol. 161, 2016, pp. 179–90, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2016.08.008">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2016.08.008</a>.
  short: G. Kirillin, T. Shatwell, Earth-Science Reviews 161 (2016) 179–190.
  ufg: '<b>Kirillin, G./Shatwell, Tom</b>: Generalized scaling of seasonal thermal
    stratification in lakes, in: <i>Earth-Science Reviews</i> 161 (2016),  S. 179–190.'
  van: Kirillin G, Shatwell T. Generalized scaling of seasonal thermal stratification
    in lakes. Earth-Science Reviews. 2016;161:179–90.
date_created: 2024-12-08T20:35:50Z
date_updated: 2024-12-09T10:04:30Z
department:
- _id: DEP8022
doi: 10.1016/j.earscirev.2016.08.008
extern: '1'
intvolume: '       161'
keyword:
- Richardson number
- Lake classification
- Seasonal stratification
- Dimixis
- Polymixis
- Water transparency
- Lake databases
- Lake modeling
- Secchi depth
language:
- iso: eng
main_file_link:
- url: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2016.08.008
page: 179-190
publication: Earth-Science Reviews
publication_identifier:
  issn:
  - 0012-8252
publication_status: published
publisher: Elsevier BV
quality_controlled: '1'
status: public
title: Generalized scaling of seasonal thermal stratification in lakes
type: scientific_journal_article
user_id: '83781'
volume: 161
year: '2016'
...