---
_id: '12855'
abstract:
- lang: eng
text: Global warming is shifting the thermal dynamics of lakes, with resulting climatic
variability heavily affecting their mixing dynamics. We present a dual ensemble
workflow coupling climate models with lake models. We used a large set of simulations
across multiple domains, multi‐scenario, and multi GCM‐ RCM combinations from
CORDEX data. We forced a set of multiple hydrodynamic lake models by these multiple
climate simulations to explore climate change impacts on lakes. We also quantified
the contributions from the different models to the overall uncertainty. We employed
this workflow to investigate the effects of climate change on Lake Sevan (Armenia).
We predicted for the end of the 21st century, under RCP 8.5, a sharp increase
in surface temperature and substantial bottom warming , longer stratification
periods (+55 days) and disappearance of ice cover leading to a shift in mixing
regime. Increased insufficient cooling during warmer winters points to the vulnerability
of Lake Sevan to climate change. Our workflow leverages the strengths of multiple
models at several levels of the model chain to provide a more robust projection
and at the same time a better uncertainty estimate that accounts for the contributions
of the different model levels to overall uncertainty. Although for specific variables,
for example, summer bottom temperature, single lake models may perform better,
the full ensemble provides a robust estimate of thermal dynamics that has a high
transferability so that our workflow can be a blueprint for climate impact studies
in other systems.
author:
- first_name: Muhammed
full_name: Shikhani, Muhammed
last_name: Shikhani
- first_name: Johannes
full_name: Feldbauer, Johannes
last_name: Feldbauer
- first_name: Robert
full_name: Ladwig, Robert
last_name: Ladwig
- first_name: Daniel
full_name: Mercado‐Bettín, Daniel
last_name: Mercado‐Bettín
- first_name: Tadhg N.
full_name: Moore, Tadhg N.
last_name: Moore
- first_name: Artur
full_name: Gevorgyan, Artur
last_name: Gevorgyan
- first_name: Amalya
full_name: Misakyan, Amalya
last_name: Misakyan
- first_name: Chenxi
full_name: Mi, Chenxi
last_name: Mi
- first_name: Martin
full_name: Schultze, Martin
last_name: Schultze
- first_name: Bertram
full_name: Boehrer, Bertram
last_name: Boehrer
- first_name: Tom
full_name: Shatwell, Tom
id: '86424'
last_name: Shatwell
orcid: 0000-0002-4520-7916
- first_name: Klemens
full_name: Barfus, Klemens
last_name: Barfus
- first_name: Karsten
full_name: Rinke, Karsten
last_name: Rinke
citation:
ama: 'Shikhani M, Feldbauer J, Ladwig R, et al. Combining a Multi‐Lake Model Ensemble
and a Multi‐Domain CORDEX Climate Data Ensemble for Assessing Climate Change Impacts
on Lake Sevan. Water resources research : an AGU journal. 2024;60(11).
doi:10.1029/2023wr036511'
apa: 'Shikhani, M., Feldbauer, J., Ladwig, R., Mercado‐Bettín, D., Moore, T. N.,
Gevorgyan, A., Misakyan, A., Mi, C., Schultze, M., Boehrer, B., Shatwell, T.,
Barfus, K., & Rinke, K. (2024). Combining a Multi‐Lake Model Ensemble and
a Multi‐Domain CORDEX Climate Data Ensemble for Assessing Climate Change Impacts
on Lake Sevan. Water Resources Research : An AGU Journal, 60(11).
https://doi.org/10.1029/2023wr036511'
bjps: 'Shikhani M et al. (2024) Combining a Multi‐Lake Model Ensemble
and a Multi‐Domain CORDEX Climate Data Ensemble for Assessing Climate Change Impacts
on Lake Sevan. Water resources research : an AGU journal 60.'
chicago: 'Shikhani, Muhammed, Johannes Feldbauer, Robert Ladwig, Daniel Mercado‐Bettín,
Tadhg N. Moore, Artur Gevorgyan, Amalya Misakyan, et al. “Combining a Multi‐Lake
Model Ensemble and a Multi‐Domain CORDEX Climate Data Ensemble for Assessing Climate
Change Impacts on Lake Sevan.” Water Resources Research : An AGU Journal
60, no. 11 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1029/2023wr036511.'
chicago-de: 'Shikhani, Muhammed, Johannes Feldbauer, Robert Ladwig, Daniel Mercado‐Bettín,
Tadhg N. Moore, Artur Gevorgyan, Amalya Misakyan, u. a. 2024. Combining a Multi‐Lake
Model Ensemble and a Multi‐Domain CORDEX Climate Data Ensemble for Assessing Climate
Change Impacts on Lake Sevan. Water resources research : an AGU journal
60, Nr. 11. doi:10.1029/2023wr036511,
.'
din1505-2-1: 'Shikhani,
Muhammed ; Feldbauer, Johannes
; Ladwig, Robert ; Mercado‐Bettín,
Daniel ; Moore, Tadhg N.
; Gevorgyan, Artur ; Misakyan,
Amalya ; Mi, Chenxi ; u. a.:
Combining a Multi‐Lake Model Ensemble and a Multi‐Domain CORDEX Climate Data Ensemble
for Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Lake Sevan. In: Water resources research :
an AGU journal Bd. 60. New York, NY, American Geophysical Union (AGU) (2024),
Nr. 11'
havard: 'M. Shikhani, J. Feldbauer, R. Ladwig, D. Mercado‐Bettín, T.N. Moore, A.
Gevorgyan, A. Misakyan, C. Mi, M. Schultze, B. Boehrer, T. Shatwell, K. Barfus,
K. Rinke, Combining a Multi‐Lake Model Ensemble and a Multi‐Domain CORDEX Climate
Data Ensemble for Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Lake Sevan, Water Resources
Research : An AGU Journal. 60 (2024).'
ieee: 'M. Shikhani et al., “Combining a Multi‐Lake Model Ensemble and a Multi‐Domain
CORDEX Climate Data Ensemble for Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Lake Sevan,”
Water resources research : an AGU journal, vol. 60, no. 11, 2024, doi:
10.1029/2023wr036511.'
mla: 'Shikhani, Muhammed, et al. “Combining a Multi‐Lake Model Ensemble and a Multi‐Domain
CORDEX Climate Data Ensemble for Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Lake Sevan.”
Water Resources Research : An AGU Journal, vol. 60, no. 11, 2024, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023wr036511.'
short: 'M. Shikhani, J. Feldbauer, R. Ladwig, D. Mercado‐Bettín, T.N. Moore, A.
Gevorgyan, A. Misakyan, C. Mi, M. Schultze, B. Boehrer, T. Shatwell, K. Barfus,
K. Rinke, Water Resources Research : An AGU Journal 60 (2024).'
ufg: 'Shikhani, Muhammed u. a.: Combining a Multi‐Lake Model Ensemble and
a Multi‐Domain CORDEX Climate Data Ensemble for Assessing Climate Change Impacts
on Lake Sevan, in: Water resources research : an AGU journal 60 (2024),
H. 11.'
van: 'Shikhani M, Feldbauer J, Ladwig R, Mercado‐Bettín D, Moore TN, Gevorgyan A,
et al. Combining a Multi‐Lake Model Ensemble and a Multi‐Domain CORDEX Climate
Data Ensemble for Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Lake Sevan. Water resources
research : an AGU journal. 2024;60(11).'
date_created: 2025-04-24T06:41:06Z
date_updated: 2025-06-25T13:09:00Z
department:
- _id: DEP8000
- _id: DEP8022
doi: 10.1029/2023wr036511
external_id:
isi:
- '001370328800001'
pmid:
- '39582854'
intvolume: ' 60'
isi: '1'
issue: '11'
keyword:
- multi model ensemble (MME)
- CORDEX
- LakeEnsemblR
- lake modeling
- climate change impacts
- variance decomposition
language:
- iso: eng
place: New York, NY
pmid: '1'
publication: 'Water resources research : an AGU journal'
publication_identifier:
eissn:
- 1944-7973
issn:
- 0043-1397
publication_status: published
publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
quality_controlled: '1'
status: public
title: Combining a Multi‐Lake Model Ensemble and a Multi‐Domain CORDEX Climate Data
Ensemble for Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Lake Sevan
type: scientific_journal_article
user_id: '83781'
volume: 60
year: '2024'
...