---
_id: '13462'
abstract:
- lang: eng
  text: Traditional project management literature often portrays heuristics as flawed
    shortcuts leading to errors, advocating for rational, debiasing strategies to
    prevent cost overruns and benefit shortfalls. This is problematic as heuristics
    can be effective. Building on Gigerenzer’s concept of fast-and-frugal heuristics,
    this study examines the use of such smart heuristics by senior managers in a large
    engineering consultancy firm during the early bid/no-bid decision-making phase
    of infrastructure projects. Employing a qualitative method from the naturalistic
    decision-making program, the research uncovers a decision strategy termed "thresholding."
    This strategy distills extensive experience and interpretation of ambiguous information
    into binary decisions, effectively de-selecting projects that could be potentially
    disastrous. The approach also gives credence to agency, as it only deselects disasters
    but keeps many potential alternatives in the portfolio to mature into potentially
    ‘good projects’. At the same time, it addresses Flyvbjerg’s call for some scrutiny
    at the front end of projects to avoid catastrophic projects that start on the
    wrong premises. Our chapter adds to the debate on the Hiding Hand by not being
    concerned with the “hidden”, but instead, with what can be known in the early
    fuzzy front-end of projects.
author:
- first_name: ' Joana '
  full_name: 'Geraldi,  Joana '
  last_name: Geraldi
- first_name: 'Verena '
  full_name: 'Stingl, Verena '
  last_name: Stingl
- first_name: Maximilian
  full_name: Schriewersmann, Maximilian
  id: '79121'
  last_name: Schriewersmann
citation:
  ama: 'Geraldi  Joana , Stingl V, Schriewersmann M. At the Brink of a Project : Heuristics
    to Block Potential Project Disasters during the Early Project Opportunity Screening.
    In: Ika LA, Pinto JK, eds. <i>Cambridge Handbook of Project Behavior </i>. Cambridge
    University Press; 2025:216-232. doi:<a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009322737">10.1017/9781009322737</a>'
  apa: 'Geraldi,  Joana , Stingl, V., &#38; Schriewersmann, M. (2025). At the Brink
    of a Project : Heuristics to Block Potential Project Disasters during the Early
    Project Opportunity Screening. In L. A. Ika &#38; J. K. Pinto (Eds.), <i>Cambridge
    handbook of project behavior </i> (pp. 216–232). Cambridge University Press. <a
    href="https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009322737">https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009322737</a>'
  bjps: '<b>Geraldi  Joana , Stingl V and Schriewersmann M</b> (2025) At the Brink
    of a Project : Heuristics to Block Potential Project Disasters during the Early
    Project Opportunity Screening. In Ika LA and Pinto JK (eds), <i>Cambridge Handbook
    of Project Behavior </i>. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, pp. 216–232.'
  chicago: 'Geraldi,  Joana , Verena  Stingl, and Maximilian Schriewersmann. “At the
    Brink of a Project : Heuristics to Block Potential Project Disasters during the
    Early Project Opportunity Screening.” In <i>Cambridge Handbook of Project Behavior
    </i>, edited by Lavagnon A. Ika and Jeffrey K. Pinto, 216–32. Cambridge: Cambridge
    University Press, 2025. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009322737">https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009322737</a>.'
  chicago-de: 'Geraldi,  Joana , Verena  Stingl und Maximilian Schriewersmann. 2025.
    At the Brink of a Project : Heuristics to Block Potential Project Disasters during
    the Early Project Opportunity Screening. In: <i>Cambridge handbook of project
    behavior </i>, hg. von Lavagnon A. Ika und Jeffrey K. Pinto, 216–232. Cambridge:
    Cambridge University Press. doi:<a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009322737">10.1017/9781009322737</a>,
    .'
  din1505-2-1: '<span style="font-variant:small-caps;">Geraldi,  Joana </span> ; <span
    style="font-variant:small-caps;">Stingl, Verena </span> ; <span style="font-variant:small-caps;">Schriewersmann,
    Maximilian</span>: At the Brink of a Project : Heuristics to Block Potential Project
    Disasters during the Early Project Opportunity Screening. In: <span style="font-variant:small-caps;">Ika,
    L. A.</span> ; <span style="font-variant:small-caps;">Pinto, J. K.</span> (Hrsg.):
    <i>Cambridge handbook of project behavior </i>. Cambridge : Cambridge University
    Press, 2025, S. 216–232'
  havard: 'Joana  Geraldi, V. Stingl, M. Schriewersmann, At the Brink of a Project :
    Heuristics to Block Potential Project Disasters during the Early Project Opportunity
    Screening, in: L.A. Ika, J.K. Pinto (Eds.), Cambridge Handbook of Project Behavior
    , Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2025: pp. 216–232.'
  ieee: 'Joana  Geraldi, V. Stingl, and M. Schriewersmann, “At the Brink of a Project :
    Heuristics to Block Potential Project Disasters during the Early Project Opportunity
    Screening,” in <i>Cambridge handbook of project behavior </i>, L. A. Ika and J.
    K. Pinto, Eds. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2025, pp. 216–232. doi:
    <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009322737">10.1017/9781009322737</a>.'
  mla: 'Geraldi,  Joana , et al. “At the Brink of a Project : Heuristics to Block
    Potential Project Disasters during the Early Project Opportunity Screening.” <i>Cambridge
    Handbook of Project Behavior </i>, edited by Lavagnon A. Ika and Jeffrey K. Pinto,
    Cambridge University Press, 2025, pp. 216–32, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009322737">https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009322737</a>.'
  short: 'Joana  Geraldi, V. Stingl, M. Schriewersmann, in: L.A. Ika, J.K. Pinto (Eds.),
    Cambridge Handbook of Project Behavior , Cambridge University Press, Cambridge,
    2025, pp. 216–232.'
  ufg: '<b>Geraldi,  Joana /Stingl, Verena/Schriewersmann, Maximilian</b>: At the
    Brink of a Project : Heuristics to Block Potential Project Disasters during the
    Early Project Opportunity Screening, in: <i>Ika, Lavagnon A./Pinto, Jeffrey K.
    (Hgg.)</i>: Cambridge handbook of project behavior , Cambridge 2025,  S. 216–232.'
  van: 'Geraldi  Joana , Stingl V, Schriewersmann M. At the Brink of a Project : Heuristics
    to Block Potential Project Disasters during the Early Project Opportunity Screening.
    In: Ika LA, Pinto JK, editors. Cambridge handbook of project behavior . Cambridge:
    Cambridge University Press; 2025. p. 216–32.'
date_created: 2026-03-03T10:55:34Z
date_updated: 2026-03-03T12:03:38Z
department:
- _id: DEP1100
doi: 10.1017/9781009322737
editor:
- first_name: Lavagnon A.
  full_name: Ika, Lavagnon A.
  last_name: Ika
- first_name: Jeffrey K.
  full_name: Pinto, Jeffrey K.
  last_name: Pinto
keyword:
- heuristics
- decision making
- project behaviour
- hiding hand
- bid/no-bid decision
language:
- iso: eng
page: 216 - 232
place: Cambridge
publication: 'Cambridge handbook of project behavior '
publication_identifier:
  eisbn:
  - '9781009322737'
  isbn:
  - '9781009322768'
  - '9781009322775'
publication_status: published
publisher: Cambridge University Press
status: public
title: 'At the Brink of a Project : Heuristics to Block Potential Project Disasters
  during the Early Project Opportunity Screening'
type: book_chapter
user_id: '83781'
year: '2025'
...