---
res:
  bibo_abstract:
  - Global warming is shifting the thermal dynamics of lakes, with resulting climatic
    variability heavily affecting their mixing dynamics. We present a dual ensemble
    workflow coupling climate models with lake models. We used a large set of simulations
    across multiple domains, multi‐scenario, and multi GCM‐ RCM combinations from
    CORDEX data. We forced a set of multiple hydrodynamic lake models by these multiple
    climate simulations to explore climate change impacts on lakes. We also quantified
    the contributions from the different models to the overall uncertainty. We employed
    this workflow to investigate the effects of climate change on Lake Sevan (Armenia).
    We predicted for the end of the 21st century, under RCP 8.5, a sharp increase
    in surface temperature  and substantial bottom warming , longer stratification
    periods (+55 days) and disappearance of ice cover leading to a shift in mixing
    regime. Increased insufficient cooling during warmer winters points to the vulnerability
    of Lake Sevan to climate change. Our workflow leverages the strengths of multiple
    models at several levels of the model chain to provide a more robust projection
    and at the same time a better uncertainty estimate that accounts for the contributions
    of the different model levels to overall uncertainty. Although for specific variables,
    for example, summer bottom temperature, single lake models may perform better,
    the full ensemble provides a robust estimate of thermal dynamics that has a high
    transferability so that our workflow can be a blueprint for climate impact studies
    in other systems.@eng
  bibo_authorlist:
  - foaf_Person:
      foaf_givenName: Muhammed
      foaf_name: Shikhani, Muhammed
      foaf_surname: Shikhani
  - foaf_Person:
      foaf_givenName: Johannes
      foaf_name: Feldbauer, Johannes
      foaf_surname: Feldbauer
  - foaf_Person:
      foaf_givenName: Robert
      foaf_name: Ladwig, Robert
      foaf_surname: Ladwig
  - foaf_Person:
      foaf_givenName: Daniel
      foaf_name: Mercado‐Bettín, Daniel
      foaf_surname: Mercado‐Bettín
  - foaf_Person:
      foaf_givenName: Tadhg N.
      foaf_name: Moore, Tadhg N.
      foaf_surname: Moore
  - foaf_Person:
      foaf_givenName: Artur
      foaf_name: Gevorgyan, Artur
      foaf_surname: Gevorgyan
  - foaf_Person:
      foaf_givenName: Amalya
      foaf_name: Misakyan, Amalya
      foaf_surname: Misakyan
  - foaf_Person:
      foaf_givenName: Chenxi
      foaf_name: Mi, Chenxi
      foaf_surname: Mi
  - foaf_Person:
      foaf_givenName: Martin
      foaf_name: Schultze, Martin
      foaf_surname: Schultze
  - foaf_Person:
      foaf_givenName: Bertram
      foaf_name: Boehrer, Bertram
      foaf_surname: Boehrer
  - foaf_Person:
      foaf_givenName: Tom
      foaf_name: Shatwell, Tom
      foaf_surname: Shatwell
      foaf_workInfoHomepage: http://www.librecat.org/personId=86424
    orcid: 0000-0002-4520-7916
  - foaf_Person:
      foaf_givenName: Klemens
      foaf_name: Barfus, Klemens
      foaf_surname: Barfus
  - foaf_Person:
      foaf_givenName: Karsten
      foaf_name: Rinke, Karsten
      foaf_surname: Rinke
  bibo_doi: 10.1029/2023wr036511
  bibo_issue: '11'
  bibo_volume: 60
  dct_date: 2024^xs_gYear
  dct_identifier:
  - UT:001370328800001
  dct_isPartOf:
  - http://id.crossref.org/issn/0043-1397
  - http://id.crossref.org/issn/1944-7973
  dct_language: eng
  dct_publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)@
  dct_subject:
  - multi model ensemble (MME)
  - CORDEX
  - LakeEnsemblR
  - lake modeling
  - climate change impacts
  - variance decomposition
  dct_title: Combining a Multi‐Lake Model Ensemble and a Multi‐Domain CORDEX Climate
    Data Ensemble for Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Lake Sevan@
  fabio_hasPubmedId: '39582854'
...