{"title":"At the Brink of a Project : Heuristics to Block Potential Project Disasters during the Early Project Opportunity Screening","year":"2025","publisher":"Cambridge University Press","language":[{"iso":"eng"}],"department":[{"_id":"DEP1100"}],"publication_identifier":{"eisbn":["9781009322737"],"isbn":["9781009322768","9781009322775"]},"date_created":"2026-03-03T10:55:34Z","author":[{"first_name":" Joana ","last_name":"Geraldi","full_name":"Geraldi,  Joana "},{"last_name":"Stingl","full_name":"Stingl, Verena ","first_name":"Verena "},{"full_name":"Schriewersmann, Maximilian","id":"79121","last_name":"Schriewersmann","first_name":"Maximilian"}],"place":"Cambridge","citation":{"bjps":"<b>Geraldi  Joana , Stingl V and Schriewersmann M</b> (2025) At the Brink of a Project : Heuristics to Block Potential Project Disasters during the Early Project Opportunity Screening. In Ika LA and Pinto JK (eds), <i>Cambridge Handbook of Project Behavior </i>. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, pp. 216–232.","short":"Joana  Geraldi, V. Stingl, M. Schriewersmann, in: L.A. Ika, J.K. Pinto (Eds.), Cambridge Handbook of Project Behavior , Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2025, pp. 216–232.","havard":"Joana  Geraldi, V. Stingl, M. Schriewersmann, At the Brink of a Project : Heuristics to Block Potential Project Disasters during the Early Project Opportunity Screening, in: L.A. Ika, J.K. Pinto (Eds.), Cambridge Handbook of Project Behavior , Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2025: pp. 216–232.","ieee":"Joana  Geraldi, V. Stingl, and M. Schriewersmann, “At the Brink of a Project : Heuristics to Block Potential Project Disasters during the Early Project Opportunity Screening,” in <i>Cambridge handbook of project behavior </i>, L. A. Ika and J. K. Pinto, Eds. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2025, pp. 216–232. doi: <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009322737\">10.1017/9781009322737</a>.","chicago":"Geraldi,  Joana , Verena  Stingl, and Maximilian Schriewersmann. “At the Brink of a Project : Heuristics to Block Potential Project Disasters during the Early Project Opportunity Screening.” In <i>Cambridge Handbook of Project Behavior </i>, edited by Lavagnon A. Ika and Jeffrey K. Pinto, 216–32. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2025. <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009322737\">https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009322737</a>.","van":"Geraldi  Joana , Stingl V, Schriewersmann M. At the Brink of a Project : Heuristics to Block Potential Project Disasters during the Early Project Opportunity Screening. In: Ika LA, Pinto JK, editors. Cambridge handbook of project behavior . Cambridge: Cambridge University Press; 2025. p. 216–32.","ama":"Geraldi  Joana , Stingl V, Schriewersmann M. At the Brink of a Project : Heuristics to Block Potential Project Disasters during the Early Project Opportunity Screening. In: Ika LA, Pinto JK, eds. <i>Cambridge Handbook of Project Behavior </i>. Cambridge University Press; 2025:216-232. doi:<a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009322737\">10.1017/9781009322737</a>","din1505-2-1":"<span style=\"font-variant:small-caps;\">Geraldi,  Joana </span> ; <span style=\"font-variant:small-caps;\">Stingl, Verena </span> ; <span style=\"font-variant:small-caps;\">Schriewersmann, Maximilian</span>: At the Brink of a Project : Heuristics to Block Potential Project Disasters during the Early Project Opportunity Screening. In: <span style=\"font-variant:small-caps;\">Ika, L. A.</span> ; <span style=\"font-variant:small-caps;\">Pinto, J. K.</span> (Hrsg.): <i>Cambridge handbook of project behavior </i>. Cambridge : Cambridge University Press, 2025, S. 216–232","apa":"Geraldi,  Joana , Stingl, V., &#38; Schriewersmann, M. (2025). At the Brink of a Project : Heuristics to Block Potential Project Disasters during the Early Project Opportunity Screening. In L. A. Ika &#38; J. K. Pinto (Eds.), <i>Cambridge handbook of project behavior </i> (pp. 216–232). Cambridge University Press. <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009322737\">https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009322737</a>","mla":"Geraldi,  Joana , et al. “At the Brink of a Project : Heuristics to Block Potential Project Disasters during the Early Project Opportunity Screening.” <i>Cambridge Handbook of Project Behavior </i>, edited by Lavagnon A. Ika and Jeffrey K. Pinto, Cambridge University Press, 2025, pp. 216–32, <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009322737\">https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009322737</a>.","ufg":"<b>Geraldi,  Joana /Stingl, Verena/Schriewersmann, Maximilian</b>: At the Brink of a Project : Heuristics to Block Potential Project Disasters during the Early Project Opportunity Screening, in: <i>Ika, Lavagnon A./Pinto, Jeffrey K. (Hgg.)</i>: Cambridge handbook of project behavior , Cambridge 2025,  S. 216–232.","chicago-de":"Geraldi,  Joana , Verena  Stingl und Maximilian Schriewersmann. 2025. At the Brink of a Project : Heuristics to Block Potential Project Disasters during the Early Project Opportunity Screening. In: <i>Cambridge handbook of project behavior </i>, hg. von Lavagnon A. Ika und Jeffrey K. Pinto, 216–232. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. doi:<a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009322737\">10.1017/9781009322737</a>, ."},"abstract":[{"lang":"eng","text":"Traditional project management literature often portrays heuristics as flawed shortcuts leading to errors, advocating for rational, debiasing strategies to prevent cost overruns and benefit shortfalls. This is problematic as heuristics can be effective. Building on Gigerenzer’s concept of fast-and-frugal heuristics, this study examines the use of such smart heuristics by senior managers in a large engineering consultancy firm during the early bid/no-bid decision-making phase of infrastructure projects. Employing a qualitative method from the naturalistic decision-making program, the research uncovers a decision strategy termed \"thresholding.\" This strategy distills extensive experience and interpretation of ambiguous information into binary decisions, effectively de-selecting projects that could be potentially disastrous. The approach also gives credence to agency, as it only deselects disasters but keeps many potential alternatives in the portfolio to mature into potentially ‘good projects’. At the same time, it addresses Flyvbjerg’s call for some scrutiny at the front end of projects to avoid catastrophic projects that start on the wrong premises. Our chapter adds to the debate on the Hiding Hand by not being concerned with the “hidden”, but instead, with what can be known in the early fuzzy front-end of projects."}],"keyword":["heuristics","decision making","project behaviour","hiding hand","bid/no-bid decision"],"publication_status":"published","page":"216 - 232","type":"book_chapter","user_id":"83781","editor":[{"first_name":"Lavagnon A.","last_name":"Ika","full_name":"Ika, Lavagnon A."},{"full_name":"Pinto, Jeffrey K.","last_name":"Pinto","first_name":"Jeffrey K."}],"doi":"10.1017/9781009322737","status":"public","_id":"13462","publication":"Cambridge handbook of project behavior ","date_updated":"2026-03-03T12:03:38Z"}